MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBP/USD Crumbles Through Support

Price Signal Summary – GBP/USD Crumbles Through Support

• S&P E-Minis traded higher Thursday but failed to hold on to the day’s gains and reversed lower. This once again highlights the current bearish threat and attention is on support and the bear trigger, at 4355.50, the Apr 18 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher Thursday, however, the contract has failed to hold onto this week’s highs and is again trading below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A continuation lower would refocus attention on key short-term support at 3684.00.
• GBPUSD accelerated the down-move early Friday, breaching support and the bear trigger at 1.2974, Apr 13 low. The break of this level confirms a resumption of bearish activity and an extension of the primary downtrend. 1.2933, the Nov 5 2020 low, also gave way, opening losses toward 1.2901 and below. Moving average studies also point south, highlighting current market sentiment. AUDUSD is trading lower and has breached initial support at 0.7343, Apr 18 low. The break means the pair is back below the 50-day EMA - a bearish development - signalling scope for a deeper pullback over the near-term.
• Gold remains below Monday’s high of $1998.4. The pullback from this level, has resulted in a print below the 20-day EMA and has exposed the 50-day EMA that intersects at $1927.5. Oil maintains a bullish tone despite this week’s retracement. A positive theme follows the recent recovery from $92.60, Apr 11 low. The contract has also found support at levels just below the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $97.62 today.
• Bund futures are weaker once again. A bearish theme continues to dominate and a fresh cycle low reinforces this outlook. The move lower also confirms an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish and yesterday’s move lower resulted in a fresh cycle low print of 117.27. The extension lower this week confirms a resumption of the downtrend.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 1.1076 High Apr 1
• RES 3: 1.1018 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.0989 High Apr 5
• RES 1: 1.0936 High Apr 21
• PRICE: 1.0850 @ 06:06 BST Apr 22
• SUP 1: 1.0824/0758 Low Apr 21 / Low Apr 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0727 Low Apr 24, 2020 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0659 0.764 proj of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.0636 Low March 23 2020

EURUSD traded higher Thursday, however, the pair failed to hold on to its gains. A resumption of strength and a break of 1.0936, yesterday’s high, would signal scope for a continuation higher, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.1018. Short-term gains are still considered corrective and the 50-day EMA represents the next key resistance point. The bear trigger is unchanged at 1.0758, the Apr 14 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Resumes Bearish Activity

• RES 4: 1.3355 High Mar 4
• RES 3: 1.3298 High Mar 23 and a pivot resistance
• RES 2: 1.3189 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3090/3147 High Apr 21 / High Apr 14
• PRICE: 1.2917 @ 08:32 BST Apr 22
• SUP 1: 1.2906 Low Apr 22 2020
• SUP 2: 1.2901 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.2855 Low Nov 2 2020 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.2830 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Jun ‘21 uptrend

GBPUSD accelerated the down-move early Friday, breaching support and the bear trigger at 1.2974, Apr 13 low. The break of this level confirms a resumption of bearish activity and an extension of the primary downtrend. 1.2933, the Nov 5 2020 low, also gave way, opening losses toward 1.2901 and below. Moving average studies also point south, highlighting current market sentiment. Key short-term resistance is at 1.3147, the Apr 14 high. Initial resistance is at 1.3090, the Apr 21 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Phase

• RES 4: 0.8512 High Mar 31
• RES 3: 0.8476 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8405/8435 High Apr 11 / High Apr 4
• RES 1: 0.8367 High Apr 21
• PRICE: 0.8327 @ 06:24 BST Apr 22
• SUP 1: 0.8283/50 Low Apr 20 / Low Apr 14 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8144 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8117 High Apr 7 2016

This week’s recovery in EURGBP is considered corrective. The cross traded higher yesterday before pulling back, but did probe the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 0.8354. A continuation higher would open the key near-term resistance at 0.8405, Apr 11 high. On the downside, the bear trigger lies at 0.8250, Apr 14 low. A reversal lower and a move through this support would expose 0.8203, the Mar 7 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 131.96 1.00 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 130.43 High Apr 24 2002
• RES 2: 130.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 129.44 0.764 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• PRICE: 128.19 @ 06:32 BST Apr 22
• SUP 1: 127.46/26.98 Low Apr 20 / Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 125.87 Low Apr 15
• SUP 3: 124.82 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 124.01 Low Apr 11

The USDJPY uptrend remains intact and price is trading closer to recent highs. This week’s price gains marks an extension of the uptrend and reinforces underlying bullish conditions, signalling potential for a continuation of the trend. The focus on 129.44 next, a Fibonacci projection. Sights are also on the important psychological 130.00 handle. A firm support is seen at 124.82, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Touched The 140.00 Handle

• RES 4: 141.22 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 141.06 High Jun 4 2015 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 140.93 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 8 price swing
• RES 1: 140.00 High Apr 21
• PRICE: 138.99 @ 06:39 BST Apr 22
• SUP 1: 137.53/136.87 High Mar 28 / Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 135.98 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 134.26 Low Apr 8 and a key support
• SUP 4: 133.94 Low Mar 28

EURJPY trend conditions remain bullish and price briefly met the Y140.00 handle on Thursday - another fresh cycle high. The recent move through 137.50/53, the Feb 2 2018 and Mar 28 highs respectively, confirmed a resumption of the bull leg that started Mar 7 and an extension of the broader bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on a break and close above 140.00 next. Initial firm support is at 135.98.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trades Through Support

• RES 4: 0.7593 High Apr 6
• RES 3: 0.7519 High Apr 7
• RES 2: 0.7493 Apr 12 high and key intraday resistance
• RES 1: 0.7458, High Apr 20/21
• PRICE: 0.7335 @ 06:57 BST Apr 22
• SUP 1: 0.7300 Round number support
• SUP 2: 0.7282 76.4% retracement of the Mar 15 - Apr 5 climb
• SUP 3: 0.7181 Low Mar 16
• SUP 4: 0.7165 Low Mar 15 and key support

AUDUSD is trading lower and has breached initial support at 0.7343, Apr 18 low. The break means the pair is back below the 50-day EMA - a bearish development - signalling scope for a deeper pullback over the near-term. This has opened 0.7282, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.7458, the Apr 20/21 high. A breach would ease the current bearish threat.

USDCAD TECHS: Directional Triggers Defined

• RES 4: 1.2711 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 5 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.2699 High Mar 17
• RES 2: 1.2646/76 High Apr 19 / High Apr 13 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2624 High Apr 20
• PRICE: 1.2604 @ 08:06 BST Apr 22
• SUP 1: 1.2459 Low Apr 21
• SUP 2: 1.2403 Low Apr 5 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2387 Low Nov 10 2021
• SUP 4: 1.2328 Low Oct 29 2021

Recent price action in USDCAD has defined key directional triggers at 1.2676, Apr 13 high and 1.2459, the Apr 21 low. Trend signals suggest the direction remains down. A break of 1.2459 would reinforce this set-up and signal scope for weakness towards 1.2403 key support, Apr 5 low. For bulls, clearance of 1.2676 would instead represent a positive price development and open 1.2711, a Fibonacci retracement.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Fresh Cycle Low

• RES 4: 160.04 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 159.79 High Apr 4 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 156.17/156.87 High Apr 14 / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 155.00 High Apr 20
• PRICE: 153.28 @ 04:55 BST Apr 22
• SUP 1: 153.10/153.00 Intraday low / Round number support
• SUP 2: 152.65 Low Sep 1 2015 (cont)
• SUP 3: 151.99 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 150.15 0.764 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing

Bunds futures are weaker once again. A bearish theme continues to dominate and a fresh cycle low reinforces this outlook. The move lower also confirms an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear mode too. The focus is on 153.00 next ahead of 152.65, the Sep 1 2015 low (cont). Initial resistance is at 155.00, Apr 20 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Resumes Its Downtrend

• RES 4: 129.877 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 129.350 High Apr 4 and a key trend resistance
• RES 2: 128.310/440 High Apr 8 / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 127.900 High Apr 20
• PRICE: 126.910 @ 05:08 BST Apr 22
• SUP 1: 126.830 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 126.480 Low Jun 5 2014 (cont)
• SUP 3: 126.196 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 126.00 Round number support

Bobl futures resumed bearish activity yesterday and the contract is trading at fresh trend lows. This reinforces the primary downtrend that remains intact. The move lower also maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving averages continue to point south. The focus is on 126.480 next, the Jun 5 2014 low (cont). Key short-term trend resistance has been defined at 128.310, the Apr 14 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Southbound

• RES 4: 111.355 High Mar 21
• RES 3: 111.170 High Mar 23
• RES 2: 110.855 High Apr 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 110.686 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 110.260 @ 05:18 BST Apr 22
• SUP 1: 110.235 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 110.188 0.382 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 110.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 109.983 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing

Schatz futures traded lower Thursday and delivered a fresh cycle low, confirming a resumption of the primary downtrend. The move lower also once again, confirms an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs - the definition of a downtrend. The focus is on 110.188 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance is at 110.686, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Trend Conditions Remain Bearish

• RES 4: 122.35 High Apr 4 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 121.88 High Apr 5
• RES 2: 119.74/120.96 20-day EMA / High Apr 6
• RES 1: 118.71 High Apr 20
• PRICE: 117.75 @ Close Apr 21
• SUP 1: 117.27 Low Apr 21
• SUP 2: 117.04 0.764 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 116.35 Low Dec 30 2015
• SUP 4: 115.40 1.00 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing

The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish and yesterday’s move lower resulted in a fresh cycle low print of 117.27. The extension lower this week confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, with moving average studies continuing to point south. This opens 117.04 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, the 20-day EMA, at 119.74, is seen as a firm resistance.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 139.23 High Mar 23
• RES 3: 138.68 High Mar 31 and key resistance
• RES 2: 137.74 High Apr 5
• RES 1: 135.53 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 132.43 @ Close Apr 21
• SUP 1: 132.01 Low Apr 21
• SUP 2: 131.85 0.618 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 130.24 0.764 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 130.00 Psychological round number

BTP futures traded lower Thursday. Fresh cycle lows have confirmed a continuation of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs - the definition of a downtrend. Moving averages remain in a bear mode too. The focus is on 131.85 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm trend resistance is unchanged at 138.68, the Mar 31 high. The 20-day EMA, at 135.53, marks initial resistance.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Fails To Hold On To Thursday’s High

• RES 4: 4132.00 High Feb 10
• RES 3: 4072.00 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 3944.00 High Mar 29and a key resistance
• RES 1: 3883.00 High Apr 21
• PRICE: 3777.00 @ 05:40 BST Apr 22
• SUP 1: 3684.00 Low Apr 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3626.50 50.0% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 3: 3551.60 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 4: 3523.00 Low Mar 11

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher Thursday, however, the contract has failed to hold onto this week’s highs and is again trading below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A continuation lower would refocus attention on key short-term support at 3684.00, the Apr 12 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this support would resume recent bearish activity. For bulls, a break above yesterday’s high of 3883.00 would open the 3944.00 key resistance point.

E-MINI S&P (M2): Bearish Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 4663.50 High Jan 18
• RES 3: 4631.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4588.75 High Apr 5
• RES 1: 4509.00 High Apr 21
• PRICE: 4382.50 @ 07:09 BST Apr 22
• SUP 1: 4355.50 Low Apr 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4321.07 61.8% retracement of the Mar 15 - Mar 29 rally
• SUP 3: 4247.89 76.4% retracement of the Mar 15 - Mar 29 rally
• SUP 4: 4129.50 Low Mar 15

S&P E-Minis traded higher Thursday but failed to hold on to the day’s gains and reversed lower. This once again highlights the current bearish threat and attention is on support and the bear trigger, at 4355.50, the Apr 18 low. A break would open 4321.07, a Fibonacci retracement and also expose the 4300.00 handle. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $4509.00, Thursday's high. A break would be bullish.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M2) Consolidating

• RES 4: $128.04 - High Mar 8
• RES 3: $125.40 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 16 downleg
• RES 2: $119.74 - High Mar 24 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $114.84 - High Apr 18
• PRICE: $107.03 @ 07:00 BST Apr 22
• SUP 1: $104.65 - Low Apr 20
• SUP 2: $102.56/97.57 - 50-day EMA / Low Apr 11
• SUP 3: $94.61 - Low Mar 16 and a key support
• SUP 4: $90.58 - Low Feb 25

Brent futures are consolidating. The short-term outlook remains positive despite this week’s retracement. A break of resistance at 114.84, Apr 18 high, would resume bullish activity and open $119.74, Mar 24 high. The contract has recently recovered from just below the 50-day EMA - a bullish development. The EMA intersects at $102.56 today. For bears, a clear break of this EMA would suggest scope for a deeper decline and open $94.61.

WTI TECHS: (M2) Trend Conditions Still Appear Bullish

• RES 4: $118.13 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $113.51/113.90 - High Mar 24 / 76.4% of Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 2: $110.22 - High Mar 28
• RES 1: $109.20 - High Apr 18
• PRICE: $102.53 @ 07:14 BST Apr 22
• SUP 1: $97.62 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $92.60 - Low Apr 11 and a key support
• SUP 3: $90.37 - Low Mar 15 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: $86.67 - Low Feb 25

WTI futures are unchanged. The contract maintains a bullish tone despite this week’s retracement. A positive theme follows the recent recovery from $92.60, Apr 11 low. The contract has also found support at levels just below the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $97.62 today. A resumption of strength would open $113.51, Mar 24 high and a key near-term resistance. Initial resistance is $109.20, the Apr 18 high. Key support is at $92.60.

GOLD TECHS: Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $2059.2 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $2007.9 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 29 downleg
• RES 2: $2001.6 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 29 downleg
• RES 1: $1998.4 - High Apr 18 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1955.0 @ 07:13 BST Apr 22
• SUP 1: $1927.5/1915.5 - 50-day EMA / Low Apr 6
• SUP 2: $1890.2 - Low Mar 29 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 4: $1848.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally

Gold remains below Monday’s high of $1998.4. The pullback from this level, has resulted in a print below the 20-day EMA and has exposed the 50-day EMA that intersects at $1927.5. A clear break of this average would suggest scope for a deeper pullback and open $1915.5, Apr 6 low and the key support at $1890.2, the Mar 29 low. Clearance of $1998.4 would reinstate a bullish theme.

SILVER TECHS: Remains Soft

• RES 4: $27.831 - High Jun 16 2021
• RES 3: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 2: $26.943 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $26.222 - High Apr 18 and a key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $24.507 @ 07:57 BST Apr 22
• SUP 1: $23.974 - Low Mar 29 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 3: $23.173 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 4: $23.082 - Low Feb 15

Silver remains soft following the reversal this week from its recent high of $26.222 on Apr 18. The move threatens the recent bullish theme and note that the 50-day EMA has been cleared - a bearish development. Clearance of this EMA suggests scope for a deeper pullback and opens the key support at $23.974, the Mar 29 low. On the upside, clearance of $26.222 would instead reinstate a bullish theme.