POLITICAL RISK: US Election Odds - Betting Markets See Trump Pulling Ahead
Oct-21 01:52
- Betting agencies show Trump continues to pull further ahead. Polymarket is now at 60% vs 40%, while Kalshi is 58% vs 42% both in Trumps favor.
- According to Polymarket, Trump has taken the lead in Nevada, with the odds now 55% v 45% this would give him lead in all 6 key swing states. Kalshi has odds slightly different with Harris leading in Michigan 51% v 49%, while Nevada is much closer at 51% vs 49% in Trumps Favor.
- RealClearPolitics has Kamala leading at 49.2 vs 48.3, although momentum in Trumps favor after rising from 47.2 at the start of October, while Harris has held steady.
- PredictIt now also shows Trump leading with a 54%, although down from a recent high of 55% on Monday, while they have Harris at 50%.
- Looking at equities that will benefit from a certain party winning, The BofA and separately the Goldman Republican victory basket overtook the Democratic victory basket back on Oct 11th, both for the first time since the Sept 10th debate. The Trump Media & Technology Group stock price has also surged 143% since Step 23 lows.
Chart. PredictIt Presidential Winner
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US TSYS: Fed Gov Waller Buoys Rates, Inflation Undershoot Concers
Sep-20 19:34
- Treasuries looked t finish near session highs Friday, bouncing off late morning lows following dovish comments from Fed Gov Waller on CNBC, consistent with the Fed going 50bp at the next meeting in November.
- Gov Waller expressed concern with inflation undershooting, not overshooting, noting firms' limited pricing power and wage inflation coming down, and that inflation is potentially on a lower path that had previously been expected.
- Fed Governor Bowman (voter) has issued a statement explaining why she dissented against the FOMC’s decision to cut the Fed Funds target range by 50bps on Wednesday. Her comments are in firm contrast to Governor Waller’s recent CNBC interview which on the flip side seemed concerned with risks of inflation undershooting.
- Projected rate cuts into early 2025 bounced off early session lows, latest vs. late Thursday levels (*) as follows: Nov'24 cumulative -37.8bp (-35.9bp), Dec'24 -75.0bp (-72.4bp), Jan'25 -108.5bp (-106.5bp).
- Dec'24 10Y Tsy futures are currently +4 at 114-27.5 vs. 114-17 low, still well off initial technical resistance at 115-23.5 (High Sep 11 and the bull trigger). Curves bull steepened, 2s10s +2.480 at 15.242, 5s30s +2.052 at 58.677.
- Looking ahead to Monday brings more Fed speak from Bostic, Goolsbee and Kashkari, data includes flash PMI data from S&P Global.
US: Harris To Deliver Remarks In Atlanta Shortly
Sep-20 19:24
Vice President Kamala Harris is shortly due to appear at an event in Atlanta, Georgia to highlight the state’s abortion ban. The event will be Harris’ first speech since she ascended to the top of the Democratic ticket focused primarily on abortion rights. LIVESTREAM
- AP notes: “About half of voters say abortion is one of the most important issues as they consider their vote – but it’s more important to women who are registered voters than to male voters, according to a new AP-NORC poll. About 6 in 10 women voters say abortion policy is one of the most important issues to their vote in the upcoming election, compared to about 4 in 10 male voters.”
JGB TECHS: (Z4) Bullish Theme
Sep-20 19:14
- RES 3: 149.55 - High Mar 22 (cont)
- RES 2: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 1: 145.95/146.67 - High Aug 6 / High Mar 6
- PRICE: 144.79 @ 18:58 BST Sep 20
- SUP 1: 143.57 - Jul 17 high
- SUP 2: 142.23 - Low Jul 02
- SUP 3: 140.21 - 1.236 proj of Mar 22 - Nov 1 ‘23 - Jan 15 price swing
A bullish outlook for JGB futures remains intact. Strong impulsive gains in early August reinforce this theme and the pullback between Aug 6 - Sep 3, appears to have been a correction. Moving average studies on the continuation chart are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend. A continuation higher would open 145.95, the Aug 6 high and a bull trigger. A reversal lower would instead expose 143.57, the Jul 17 high.
