MNI INTERVIEW: UK Confidence Bounce Resilience, Not Optimism

A pick-up in confidence in recent months should be seen as a product of the resilience of the UK consumer in times of turmoil and not a sign of optimism, a leading survey company told MNI.

The GfK Overall Consumer Confidence Index rose by one point to -16 in January, six points higher than the January 2025 reading.

"Let’s be clear - this isn’t optimism; it’s resilience," Neil Bellamy, Consumer Insights Director at GfK, an NIQ company, said in an interview.

"Consumers are once again focusing on what they can control - their own spending and saving - while confidence in the wider economy remains low," he said, noting that to many consumers, "the UK economy is beginning to resemble an untethered boat drifting slowly out to sea.”

CAUTION CONSUMER

According to Bellamy, during periods of political and economic uncertainty, such as late 2022, consumers become "more cautious but also more self-reliant. What we’re witnessing now is a return to that mindset: people feel they can manage their own finances, but they remain unconvinced about the wider economic outlook". 

The forecast for personal finances over the next year rose four points to 6, according to the January survey, eight points better than this time last year, whilst expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months are down two points to -31.

GfK's savings index increased four points to 28, reflecting once more comsumers' caution in times of turbulence. (see MNI INTERVIEW: UK Consumer Savings Still Drag on Economy- ONS )

The survey ran from Jan 2 to Jan 15, so missing the threat from U.S. President Donald Trump to inflict additional tariffs on the UK and some other NATO partners over his claims on Greenland. However, it did catch a few days of the implicit threat of military action by Washington to take sovereign control of the arctic territory.

LONG WAY BACK

“January 2026 brings an unwanted anniversary, marking 10 years since consumer confidence was last in positive territory," Bellamy notes. 

Even with this month’s pick-up, we are still a long way from consumers feeling that better days are around the corner. Yes, perceptions of personal finances have improved, but this is offset by growing concerns about the economy -- and as noted, we’ve seen this pattern before," he added.