MNI CNB Preview - Feb 2026: Holding The Line

Download Full Report Here

Executive Summary:

• Unanimous consensus looks for a stand-pat outcome.
• Flash January CPI print will be published hours before the decision.
• The tone of communications and new forecast will be in focus.

Another unanimous vote in favour of a rate hold is baseline scenario for the upcoming Czech National Bank (CNB) monetary policy meeting. Although headline inflation is in the vicinity of the +2% Y/Y point-target and the external environment remains disinflationary, sticky services prices remain a source of concern and keep core inflation elevated. The awkward timing of the publication of flash January CPI data, due in the morning before the rate decision, puts the Bank Board in a somewhat uncomfortable position, but members will likely look through inflation figures unless there is a significant surprise to the downside. Looking further afield, bets on a resumption of monetary easing in the coming months are growing as the tone of CNB communications turns more dovish.