MNI INTERVIEW: Trade War Preventing Factory Rebound-ISM Chief
U.S. manufacturing will remain in contraction territory so long as trade uncertainty continues to drag on businesses, Institute for Supply Management manufacturing chair Susan Spence told MNI.
"Havoc, uncertainty, fear, concern. Those are still the words that folks are using," she said. "It's just hard to find positive comments. It just is. And sometimes when they're positive, it's because it's seasonal," Spence said in an interview.
All four demand indicators from ISM improved over the month, but are still in contractionary territory. The ISM manufacturing index declined 0.4pt to 48.7 in October, almost a percentage point below expectations and an eighth consecutive month of contraction.
"Even though new orders are slightly up, I'm not seeing anything sustainable," Spence said, striking a pessimistic tone about demand. "There were hundreds and hundreds of comments about demand."
New orders increased 0.5pt to 49.4, production fell 2.8pts to 48.2, and employment increased 0.7pt to 46.0. The new export orders component increased 1.5pts to 44.5. The prices paid measure declined 3.9pts to 58.0.
NO TURN AROUND
"We're just looking for any sign of hope here. I'm not saying it's hopeless, but for every month that we still are in contraction and still see these anemic orders and new expert orders, I just don't expect anything to turn around," she said.
"If the desire was to get companies to get going, get moving, get producing, and get hiring. That's not the thing that's going to do it. They they need orders, they need work, and they need people willing to buy from us."
