MNI Eurozone Inflation Preview – August 2025

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Clear Downside Surprise Needed For Dovish Tilt

• The August Eurozone inflation round is split across two weeks, with the main prints of Spain, France, Italy, and Germany all scheduled for this Friday before the Netherlands and the Eurozone-wide figures follow next Tuesday.
• Analysts are looking for headline to pick up marginally to 2.1% Y/Y, while core inflation is expected to slow to 2.2%.
• Across categories, the main driver this time will be energy inflation base effects, putting upside pressure on headline. Analysts see the category around -1.6% Y/Y in August after -2.4% in July.
• Services inflation is expected to continue its downtrend seen this year, with consensus standing around 3.0-3.1% after 3.2% in July.
• Core goods meanwhile are seen to give away some of their July firmness, at 0.7% Y/Y, while views on food/alcohol/tobacco inflation are more mixed this time where consensus might be for a roughly unchanged print at 3.2%.