MNI Eurozone Inflation Insight – September 2025

Near-Term Cut Remaining Afield

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• Eurozone September headline HICP inflation printed broadly in line with consensus expectations on Tuesday, at 2.23% (consensus 2.2%) for an acceleration versus August’s 2.04%.
• As we flagged in our preview ahead of country-level data, such a marginal upside surprise was not sufficient to ensure a material tilt in EUR rates, with markets expecting both the October and December ECB meetings to remain largely out of play.

• Across categories, food, alcohol and tobacco (FAT) was the only notable surprise, coming in softer than expected at 3.04%Y/Y (down from 3.19%Y/Y where it was expected to remain).