MNI China Press Digest Nov 6: Economy, Bonds, Freight

Highlights from Chinese press reports on Thursday:

• The Yicai Chief Economist Confidence Index remained steady at 50.3 in November, as authorities remain on course to meet the 5% annual growth target. For the upcoming October data release, economists project retail sales growth of 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below September’s 3% and industrial added value growth of 5.7%, down from 6.5% in the previous month. Lian Ping, chief economist at Guangkai Research Institute, noted that consumption still faces structural bottlenecks, as most policy tools have already been utilised this year. Even if similar stimulus measures are rolled out next year, sustaining the current growth pace needs a meaningful increase in household income, Lian added.
• China’s bond market has remained subdued even after the People’s Bank of China injected a net CNY20 billion through bond trades in October, Yicai reported, noting that volumes had fallen short of expectations. Zhang Xu, chief fixed-income analyst at Everbright Securities, said that the PBOC would likely stagger its purchases to avoid excessive disruptions in yields as the bond market’s short-term capacity to absorb large-scale buying is limited. However, a report from Guotai Haitong suggested that PBOC bond trading could expand before the end of the year should the central bank aim to keep its government-bond holdings relatively stable.
• China’s Highway Logistics Freight Index stood at 104.9 points in October, down 0.10% month-on-month and 0.11% year-on-year, according to data from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. Gao Shuai, an analyst at the China Logistics Information Center, said the economy remained broadly stable in October, though business production and operations slowed somewhat. Gao noted that in 2025, weak domestic demand had constrained growth and the traditional October peak season for production and manufacturing has failed to fully materialise. Liu Xiangdong, deputy director of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said with the onset of the “Double 11” e-commerce shopping season, the index should edge up in November.