ASIA: Government Bond Issuance Today.
- Philippines To Sell PHP 5.0Bln 364D Bills (PH0000059552).
- Philippines To Sell PHP 5.0Bln 91D Bills (PH0000058182).
- Philippines To Sell PHP 5.0Bln 182D Bills (PH0000058588).
- Bank of Korea to Sell KRW800bn 91-Day Bonds.
- South Korea to Sell KRW900bn 5-Year Bonds.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (Z4) Through First Support
- RES 3: 96.975 - High Mar 14
- RES 2: 96.501 - 76.4% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- PRICE: 95.570 @ 15:49 BST Oct 25
- SUP 1: 95.490 - Low Oct 23
- SUP 2: 95.430 - Low Apr 26 (cont)
- SUP 3: 94.722 - Low Jul 2
Aussie 10-yr futures remain weak on the back of stellar domestic jobs numbers, prompting prices to come under further pressure. This counters the recent bullish set-up. Prices fell through 95.850 Friday, narrowing the gap with the next key support at the Apr 26 low of 95.430. Any recovery and clear break higher would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for an extension towards 96.207, a Fibonacci retracement.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Structure
- RES 4: 0.6942 High Sep 30 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 0.6852/6889 High Oct 4 / 3
- RES 2: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 1: 0.6728 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6639 @ 16:01 BST Oct 25
- SUP 1: 0.6622/14 Low Sep 11 and key support / Low Oct 23
- SUP 2: 0.6576 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6508 Low Aug 8
- SUP 4: 0.6490 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and price is trading just above this week’s low. The recent breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, exposed 0.6622, the Sep 11 low and a key support. This support has been pierced. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish theme and open 0.6576, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is at 0.6942, the Sep 30 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6728, the 50-day EMA.
US TSYS: Finishing Near Lows for the Week
- After a firmer start, Treasuries have retreated to lows for the week late Friday, no obvious headline or flow related driver with the Federal Reserve entering their self imposed media blackout regarding policy at midnight.
- The Dec'24 10Y contract is has fallen to 110-30.5 - matching the midweek low as it traded through 200-dma technical support of 111-04. The next significant support is at 110-13 (61.8% retracement of the Apr - Sep bull cycle (cont)). 10Y yield has climbed to 4.2419 +.0302. Curves modestly steeper: 2s10s +.639 at 13.520, 5s30s +.403 at 44.246.
- Current projected rate cuts into early 2025 look steady to mildly lower vs. late Thursday levels (*): Nov'24 cumulative steady at -23.6bp, Dec'24 -43.7bp (-42.9bp), Jan'25 -60.6bp (-60.1bp), Mar'25 -79.2bp (-81.0bp).
- Mixed data included better than expected Durable goods orders, with both headline and core orders beating expectations in the preliminary September release and a downward revision to Aug being confined to volatile items. Overall durable goods orders -0.8% M/M (cons -1.0%) after a downward revised -0.8% (initial 0.0%).
- U.Mich consumer sentiment was stronger than expected in October as it was revised up to 70.5 (prelim 68.9) for a small increase from 70.1 in September. Both current conditions and expectations were revised higher. 1Y inflation expectations: 2.7% (cons & prelim 2.9) in Oct after 2.7% in Sep, surprisingly remaining at what was the lowest since Dec 2020.
- Slow start to the week ahead, focus is on next Friday's October employment report.
