PLN: Zloty Tad Softer, Market Participants Mull NBP Speak & US Trade Policy
EUR/PLN changes hands just a tad higher on the session, last dealing at 4.2549. The 50-EMA provides the initial layer of resistance at 4.2780, while bears look for a sustained break below the 4.25 figure. The rate remains locked within a familiar sideways trend.
- In the grand scheme of things, the focus remains on the new US administration's trade policy and its wider ramifications. The greenback outperforms all of its G10 peers, with the BBDXY Index up by 0.5%, amid reports that President Trump intends to slap 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada by next month.
- MPC's Ludwik Kotecki and Henryk Wnorowski deviated from Governor Glapinski's hawkish comments and signalled that they see potential for rate cuts this year. Kotecki said cuts could start from July and be to the tune of 50-100bp, while Wnorowski merely noted that they are unlikely to happen in Q1.
- In a similar vein, the IMF said that Poland could cut rates by 50-100bp in 2H2025, possibly more if the government would tighten fiscal policy by the recommended 0.5% of GDP.
- The local data calendar is empty today, but a flurry of monthly economic activity indicators for December will trickle through on Wednesday and Thursday, providing an update on the state of the economy.
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TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
- TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
- TRUDEAU WANTS GOVT TO PREPARE FOR NEW US ADMINISTRATION
- TRUDEAU DOESN'T ADDRESS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS LEADERSHIP
USDCAD TECHS: A Pullback Would Be Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 1.4537 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4356 @ 16:56 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 1.4301 Low Dec 18
- SUP 2: 1.4174/4014 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. While price faded into the Thursday close, the recent breach of 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and this maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The latest rally opens 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4174, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 0.6550 High Nov 25
- RES 3: 0.6501 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 1: 0.6337/6396 Low Dec 11 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6263 @ 16:55 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 0.6199 Low Dec 19
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and this week’s fresh cycle lows and Wednesday’s sell-off, reinforce a bear theme. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The break lower opens 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6396, the 20-day EMA.
