PLN: Zloty On Track To Snap Three-Day Winning Streak
The local docket remains very light after a quiet session yesterday, which leaves the zloty exposed to external factors. EUR/PLN trades +85 pips at 4.4471, with bulls looking for a move through the 50-EMA/round figure at 4.4921/4.5000, while bears keep an eye on Jul 4 low of 4.4138.
- Polish FRA contracts remain under pressure, extending the move initially inspired by the dovish NBP presser last Friday. They keep refreshing cyclical lows, which raises questions over the sustainability of the move, with the market already pricing a decent amount of NBP tightening this year.
- POLGBs are firmer on the day, trading 4.7-9.5bp richer on the day. The WIG20 Index has added ~0.9% this morning amid solid performance from local lenders, with the WIGBANK Index up ~2.2% to fresh cyclical highs.
- NBP Governor Glapinski is expected to speak in parliament tonight to discuss the central bank's activities in 2022. The official will likely defend the NBP's record, reiterating his claims that the central bank made the best possible decisions.
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CNH: Another Day, Another Fresh Cycle High For USD/CNH
USD/CNH has registered another fresh YtD high today (CNH7.1592), with the well-defined uptrend channel that we have flagged presenting the most meaningful technical parameters for now. This comes after the cross lodged a fifth consecutive weekly move higher last week.
- In terms of the bigger picture, we have noted that the Chinese authorities appear fairly relaxed about the current FX backdrop.
US: SFR FIX - 12/06/23
- 1M 5.14763 0.00201
- 3M 5.24938 0.00784
- 6M 5.28611 0.01896
- 12M 5.14817 0.04544
LOOK AHEAD: Flurry Of US Note And Bill Supply
* US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
* Jun-12 1130 US Tsy $40B 3Y Note auction (91282CHH7)
* Jun-12 1130 US Tsy $58B 26W bill auction
* Jun-12 1300 US Tsy $32B 10Y Note auction re-open (91282CHC8)
* Jun-12 1300 US Tsy $65B 13W bill auction
* Jun-12 1400 Monthly Budget Statement ($176.2B, -$236B)
