PLN: Zloty Depreciates But Holds Earlier Range, Markets Re-Open Briefly In Midst Of Holidays

May-02 09:14

The uptick in EUR/PLN this morning keeps the pair within a familiar and relatively narrow trading range. The rate last deals at 4.3313, up 85 pips on the session. POLGBs are firmer across the curve, in line with wider sentiment. The WIG20 Index operates 0.3% above neutral levels. The local calendar suggests that liquidity may be limited today, with markets re-opening just for one day between a public holiday yesterday and another one tomorrow.

  • With EUR/PLN holding a familiar range, from a technical perspective, gains past Apr 16 high of 4.3728 would reignite bullish momentum. Conversely, key support is at Apr 9 low of 4.2527, followed by the psychologically significant 4.25 figure.
  • The zloty is the worst performer in the region, even as it lags the koruna only by a very narrow margin. PLN/CZK sits at 5.8010 and is again testing the ascending the 100-DMA (5.7947), which has supported price action in recent days. PLN/HUF trades at 89.92 and is also pressing upon its 100-DMA (89.85), which had earlier limited losses in January.
  • Poland's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI deteriorated to 45.9 in April from 48.0 prior versus 47.9 expected. The accompanying commentary noted that the country's "manufacturing downturn was extended into April, marking the longest period of continuous decline since the survey began in 1998." In addition, "price pressures remained weak, with input costs posting a renewed decline and output prices falling for the thirteenth straight month."

Historical bullets

US TSY FLOWS: 5yr Block trade

Apr-02 09:07

Block trade suggest seller:

  • FVM4 3.5k at 106.18.

FOREX: USD Index at YTD Highs, Squeezing Net Short Position

Apr-02 09:06
  • The USD Index touched the best levels of the year so far this morning at 105.100 during Asia-Pac hours. The moves comes as an extension off the Monday strength and the better-than-expected ISM Manufacturing release, which tipped prices paid to the highest level in over a year - raising questions over the sustainability of the recent slowdown in inflation. Despite this, CFTC data covering positioning as of the Tuesday close shows markets swung their net USD position short for the first time since 2021, potentially exposing the currency to corrective recoveries on flatting US economic data.
  • CHF is the poorest performer in G10 early Tuesday, prompting EUR/CHF to recover well off pullback lows printed late last week. This keeps the cycle high and bull trigger within range at 0.9820 in EUR/CHF, a level that could come into play should ECB rate cut pricing follow the lead of the Fed gyrations so far this week. OIS markets currently price ~93bps of rate cuts from the ECB for this year.
  • NOK is the firmest currency so far Tuesday, moving in tandem with oil prices. Brent crude futures have extended the rally off last week's lows to 4.5%, but EUR/NOK holds within range of recent cycle highs. First resistance holds at 11.7914 - a mark tested, but not topped, across both the Monday and Friday sessions. Clearance of last week's highs in EUR/NOK would open levels last seen in December and the next major upside resistance of 11.8695.
  • Preliminary German CPI numbers for March are due, JOLTs job openings take the focus for the US session ahead, with final durable goods orders also on the docket. Fed speakers are plentiful, with Fed's Bowman, Williams, Mester and Daly all on the docket.

EURIBOR: EURIBOR FIX - 02/04/24

Apr-02 09:03

EURIBOR FIX - EMMI/Bloomberg

  • EUR001W 3.8700 0.0170
  • EUR001M 3.8550 0.0000
  • EUR003M 3.8830 -0.0090
  • EUR006M 3.8420 -0.0090
  • EUR012M 3.6640 -0.0050