UKRAINE: Zelenskyy To Meet w/UK's Starmer After High-Profile Trump Call

Aug-14 08:05

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets with UK PM Sir Keir Starmer at the bottom of the hour in the aftermath of a series of high-level videocalls on 13 August related to the situation of the war, and more specifically, the upcoming meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on 15 August. Three main calls took place on 13 Aug: the first between Zelesnkyy and European Union leaders, the second involving Zelensky, European leaders (incl. Starmer), the NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, and Trump and his VP JD Vance, and the third involving the 'coalition of the willing', those countries that have committed to providing peacekeeping troops to Ukraine if a peace deal is reached. 

  • Politico reports that the Starmer-Zelenskyy meeting is set to be a private conversation, with no press conference or media availability from either man afterwards. Zelenskyy warned on the various 13 August calls that Putin is not taking the prospect of a ceasefire seriously, and will be 'bluffing' in the talks with Trump.
  • Trump warned of 'severe consequences' for Russia if Putin does not agree to an eventual peace deal, but gave no details of what these might entail. Politico reports that the US may also be willing to provide some security guarantees for Ukraine if a ceasefire is reached. Again, no details were forthcoming on what these guarantees might be, but they go some way to explaining the near-universal positive response to yesterday's calls from European leaders. 

 

Historical bullets

SONIA OPTIONS: SFIZ5 96.25/96.05/95.85 Put Fly Lifted

Jul-15 08:00

SFIZ5 96.25/96.05/95.85 put fly paper paid 3.25 on 5.5K. Was also lifted on 5.5K yesterday.

US TSY FUTURES: FV/US Flattener Blocked

Jul-15 07:54

Latest block trades lodged at 08:36:12 London/03:36:12 NY:

  • FVU5 7.9K lots blocked 108-03.25, looks like a seller.
  • USU5 2.5K lots blocked at 112-25, looks like a buyer.
  • DV01 ~$340K.

NOK: Early Underperformance Fades; Jul 2 High Important Resistance In EURNOK

Jul-15 07:50

Early NOK underperformance has faded a little, with yesterday’s 11.8792 high containing topside in EURNOK for now. Through July, the cross has consolidated the ~4% rise seen following Norges Bank’s surprise 25bp cut on June 19. This has allowed an overbought condition to unwind, providing a more favourable technical backdrop for those expecting NOK weakness to continue. Initial resistance is the July 2 high at 11.9156, clearance of which would expose the psychological 12.0000 handle.

  • Our commodities team highlight that oil is lower on Tuesday, having begun its reversal on Monday as Trump threats towards Russian sanctions were offered a 50-day deadline – easing any fears of short-term disruption.
  • Note that this week’s Norwegian macro calendar is very light, leaving cross-asset dynamics at the fore for NOK FX and rates.

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