AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (Z6) Stable Off Lows

From Moody's: "The upgrade of Ireland's ratings to Aa2 reflects sustained improvements in the country's economic and fiscal strength that surpass our previous assessment and that we expect to continue."

• "Ireland has materially outperformed our expectations for debt reduction in recent years. Going forward, we expect a further decline in the debt burden as higher than previously expected underlying trend growth sustains government revenue, and fiscal policy adequately allocates government resources between current expenditures and an accumulation of financial buffers."
• "The positive outlook reflects upside risks to Ireland's credit profile at the Aa2 rating level. While the Aa2 rating already assumes steady robust growth and a further improvement in fiscal and debt metrics, sustained positive surprises on FDI and government revenue could accelerate the accumulation of financial buffers by the government beyond our current expectations. Upside risks also relate to a more robust implementation of the NDP that addresses the structural bottlenecks that contribute to Ireland's current economic and social inequalities."

Friday's US rates/bond options flow included:

• SFRU6 96.37c, traded half in 4k.
• SFRU6 96.25/96.31cs, traded 1.75 in 2k.
• SFRU6 96.43/96.18ps 1x2, sold at 14.75 and 14.5 in 20k total.
• SFRV6 96.18/96.06/96.00/95.93p condor, traded 4 in 3.5k
• SFRZ6 96.12/96.25/96.37/96.50c condor, traded 5.25 in 2.25k.
• SFRU7 95.50p, bought for 22 in 10k
• 0QU6 95.93/95.75ps vs 96.00c, sold the ps at 0.25 in 12k (ref 95.93)
• 0QZ6 95.50p, bought for 8.5 in 10k
• FVV6 106.00 puts 2K sold at 0-19
• TYU6 108.75 calls sees ~2.8K given at 0-01 over a few clips.
• 2.5K USV6 107.00 & 2.5K USV6 106.00 puts blocked vs. 5K USV6 110.00 calls, CME suggests bought the calls and sold the puts for -0-03

While Federal Reserve officials and varied global central bank/policy figures will be in attendance at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium (Aug 27-29), the focus as always will be the opening speech by the Fed Chair at 1000am ET on Friday (8am local time in Wyoming). We'll publish a full preview of the event next week,.

• With no title for his speech yet provided, it's unclear which approach Kevin Warsh will take for his first Jackson Hole keynote as Chair. He said at the July FOMC post-meeting press conference that he hadn't yet "made a decision whether it’s going to be a big-picture speech or whether it’s going to be a more traditional set up for all the action we’re going to have between September and December... If I could, in the high mountain air in Jackson, Wyoming, I’d like to also frame the big questions." Warsh has been famously reluctant to provide forward guidance on future Fed decisions, and this speech is unlikely be an exception. But with a 25bp hike at the September meeting still very much live (40% priced), markets will be sensitive to whether he signals discomfort with the inflation outlook.
• Potential "big picture" topics that could touch on that for example could include the short- and longer-term impact of AI on productivity and inflation (something he's spoken about previously, and a topic of Committee discussion in the July meeting minutes), though it's probably too early to preview in much detail what his five "task forces" will conclude on topics as varied as balance sheet policy and macro data.
• If we do get a "traditional set up" for the upcoming policy meetings, we'd expect Warsh to remain enigmatic but to reiterate the Committee's pledge to deliver price stability with reference to its ongoing assessment of data trends, to keep options open in the coming months.