US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Trades Through Key Resistance

• In FX, the trend theme in EURUSD remains bullish. Tuesday’s gains resulted in a climb above 1.1829 the Jul 01 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and opens 1.1923 next, the 2.00 projection of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 1.1652.
• A bullish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and price is trading higher this week. The pair has breached resistance at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high and a bull trigger. The break strengthens bullish conditions and opens 1.3681 next, the Jul 4 high. Initial firm support to watch is 1.3487, the 50-day EMA.
• Key short-term support to watch in USDJPY is 146.21, the Aug 14 low and a bear trigger. A break of this level would highlight a stronger bearish threat and a range breakout. This would expose 145.40, 50% of the Apr - Aug upleg. On the upside, clearance of 149.14, the Sep 3 high is required to reinstate a bullish theme. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this continues to highlight a dominant uptrend.

(MNI) London - SCMP reported earlier this morning that the US and China are in "the “final stage” of negotiations for a state visit to Beijing by US President Donald Trump, with bulk purchases of American goods a critical part of the deliverables". The potential finalisation of a state visit comes after the latest round of talks led by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Madrid, Spain, aimed at reaching a deal on trade and tariffs. Chinese President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Donald Trump are due to hold a call on Friday, 19 September to discuss a wide range of issues. 

• SCMP: “The deliverables may include a new deal to purchase US goods,” the source said, adding that Boeing aircraft were “very likely” on the list. The source confirmed that China sent a formal state visit invitation to Trump in the first week of September, which usually indicates a state visit is “more or less confirmed” and that planning is in a “very advanced stage”.
• With Trump set to travel to east Asia for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea, running 31 Oct-1 Nov, any state visit could come around that time.
• While the article paints a relatively rosy picture of the prospect of a state visit, the evident tensions between the US and China on geopolitical and economic/trade issues could derail the prospect of a high-profile visit over the coming months. 

OI data points to net long setting in most Tsy futures as contracts ultimately ticked higher on Tuesday, with short cover in FV futures breaking the theme seen on the wider curve. Just under $5mln of fresh net DV01 equivalent was added across the curve, with the biggest DV01 move coming in TY futures.