US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact
Oct-02 10:43
- RES 4: 114-10 High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 3: 114-00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 113-12/29 High Sep 18 / High Sep 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 113-00 High Sep 24
- PRICE: 112-29 @ 11:32 BST Oct 2
- SUP 1: 112-11/01 50-day EMA / 50.0% of Jul 15 - Sep 11 bull phase
- SUP 2: 111-26 Low Aug 26
- SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support
- SUP 4: 111-01+ 76.4% retracement of the Jul 15 - Sep 11 bull phase
Treasuries bounced Wednesday and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. Attention is on support at the 50-day EMA, currently at 112-11. A clear break of this average would undermine a bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 111-13+, the Aug 18 low and the next key support. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged, at 113-00, the Sep 24 high. A break would be bullish.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Corrective Cycle In Oil Futures Remains In Play
Sep-02 10:38
- On the commodity front, Gold traded sharply higher earlier as the metal extends its bull cycle. Today’s gains have resulted in breach of key resistance at $3500.1, the Apr 22 high, and delivered a fresh all-time high. This confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3547.9, a 1.764 projection of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing. Initial firm support to watch lies at $3381.8, the 20-day EMA.
- In the oil space, a bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. This short-term corrective cycle remains in play and today’s rally reinforces this theme. Initial resistance to watch is $66.56, the Aug 4 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. A resumption of weakness would pave the way for a move towards $57.71, the May 30 low.
EGB SYNDICATION: MNI pencil in E2.0bln for the Lithuanian syndication
Sep-02 10:34
- Lithuania's issuance plan for 2025 sees a E6.0bln Eurobonds issuance target. E2.0bln was raised at syndication in January (dual-tranche 5/15-year) and we calculate just under E1.2bln has been sold at auction.
- This leaves E2.0bln as our expected size (split equally between the two tranches). We see two-way risks to this (towards either E1.5bln or E2.5bln).
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Flash Mfg PMI, ISMs, Construction Spending
Sep-02 10:33
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 09/02 0945 S&P Global US Mfg PMI (53.3, 53.3)
- 09/02 1000 ISM Mfg (48.0, 49.0), Prices Paid (64.8, 65.0)
- 09/02 1000 ISM New Orders (47.1, 48.0), Employment (43.4, 45.0)
- 09/02 1000 Construction Spending MoM (-0.4%, -0.1%)
- 09/02 1130 US Tsy $82B 13W & $73B 26W bill auctions
- 09/02 1300 US Tsy $85B 6W bills & $50B 52W bill auctions
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
