US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Sights Are On The Bull Trigger
- RES 4: 114-10 High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 3: 114-00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 113-29 High Sep 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 113-17+ High Oct 14
- PRICE: 113-14 @ 11:10 BST Oct 15
- SUP 1: 112-26 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 112-16/01 50-day EMA / 50.0% of Jul 15 - Sep 11 upleg
- SUP 3: 111-26 Low Aug 26
- SUP 4: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support
Treasuries are holding on to this week’s gains and a bullish theme remains intact. Last Friday’s climb resulted in a break of the 113-00 handle, signalling scope for stronger rally towards 113-29, the Sep 11 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the M/T uptrend. Support at the 50-day EMA at 112-16 remains intact for now. A clear break of the average would expose 111-13+, the Aug 18 low and a key support.
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LOOK AHEAD: Empire Mfg And Potential Bessent-He Presser
US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
- 09/15 0830 Empire Mfg (11.9, 5.0)
- 09/15 1130 US Tsy $82B 13W & $73B 26W bill auctions
- 09/15 1600 Trump signs Presidential Memorandum
- 09/15 Second day of Bessent-He talks in Madrid, potential presser in European afternoon
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Roll Call, MNI
EQUITIES: The Rolls are active
- As expected there's been a strong pick up in Equity rolls, some investors will favour taking advantage of the lighter start of the Week and ahead of the FOMC to Roll, Square Positions with Triple witching on Friday.
- Around 90% of the front month volume in the Emini is spread related, albeit have traded in small, but the US are starting to come in.
- For the Estoxx (VGU5), 73% of the front Volume is spread related and over 350k spread have already traded today.
US TSY FUTURES: Net Long Cover Most Prominent On Friday
OI data points to a mix of net long cover (TU, FV, UXY, US & WN) and short setting (TY) as Tsy yields pulled away from recent lows on Friday. Net long cover was comfortably more prominent in curve-wide terms.
| 12-Sep-25 | 11-Sep-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,485,334 | 4,494,228 | -8,894 | -360,593 |
FV | 6,819,380 | 6,841,853 | -22,473 | -999,406 |
TY | 5,372,837 | 5,367,855 | +4,982 | +341,293 |
UXY | 2,365,713 | 2,372,134 | -6,421 | -586,746 |
US | 1,807,094 | 1,818,959 | -11,865 | -1,697,898 |
WN | 2,011,771 | 2,016,360 | -4,589 | -864,949 |
|
| Total | -49,260 | -4,168,298 |
