BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Theme

• RES 4: 117.710 High Aug 5 and a key resistance    
• RES 3: 117.640 High Aug 7 
• RES 2: 117.473 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 117.410 High Aug 21
• PRICE: 117.270 @ 05:48 BST Aug 26
• SUP 1: 116.950 Low Aug 15   
• SUP 2: 116.840 1.00 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 11 - 22 price swing  
• SUP 3: 116.800 Low Mar 17 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 116.637 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)

Bobl futures are trading closer to their recent lows. A bearish theme remains intact. A strong sell-off on Aug 15 highlights the bearish threat and moving average studies are in a bear-mode position. The contract has pierced support at 116.970, the Jul 25 low and a bear trigger. A clear breach of this level would set the scene for an extension towards 116.840, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance is 117.473, the 50-day EMA.

• RES 4: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
• RES 3: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 1.1789 High Jul 24 
• RES 1: 1.1743 High Aug 22
• PRICE: 1.1632 @ 06:07 BST Aug 26
• SUP 1: 1.1597/1.1528 50-day EMA / Low Aug 5 
• SUP 2: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 1.1373 Low Jun 10 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30 

Despite Monday's move down, the trend set-up in EURUSD remains bullish and short-term weakness is for now considered corrective. Support at the 50-day EMA remains intact, at 1.1597. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement and potentially expose key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would open key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.1829, the Jul 1 high. 

After rallying on the prospects of Fed easing, oil prices are lower today. They fell following news that US President Trump would remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook effective immediately due to allegations of mortgage fraud. The uncertainty around the threat to central bank independence weighed on most risk assets including crude. WTI is down 0.5% to $64.46/bbl, close to the intraday trough, while Brent is 0.4% lower at $68.50/bbl.

• The US Department of Homeland Security issued a notice that India will face a 25% punitive tariff as of Wednesday because it continues to purchase Russian oil. There are concerns that an extension to China and if it is enforced that global supplies will be materially impacted. Ukraine also continues to target Russia’s energy infrastructure.
• While oil has rallied on the back of increased Fed easing expectations following Friday’s Chair Powell comments suggesting that risks could warrant shifting policy, excess supply worries persist. There is US industry-based inventory data out later today, which continues to be watched closely.
• Later the Fed’s Barkin, BoE Mann and BoC Governor Macklem appear. US preliminary July orders, June house prices, August Richmond Fed, Dallas Fed services, Philly Fed non-manufacturing and consumer confidence print.