CHINA PRESS: Yuan To Remain Relatively Strong

September filled jobs for September are released on Tuesday and will round out the quarter before Q3 labour market data on 5 November, a key release before the 26 November RBNZ decision. The Q3 average is currently sitting 0.1% q/q higher but previous months can be prone to revision. 

• There are RBNZ speakers this week but Friday’s appearance by MPC member Gai at the Melbourne Annual Macro Policy Meeting on “monetary policy in the context of global uncertainty” at 1530 NZT/1330 AEDT is likely the most relevant to the OCR outlook. A Q&A session will follow the panel discussion and the RBNZ will publish his comments.
• Acting RBNZ Governor Hawkesby speaks on central bank independence on Wednesday at 1630 NZT/1430 AEDT. The speech will be published on the RBNZ website.
• Also on Wednesday at 1100 NZT/0900 AEDT, RBNZ Director of Financial Markets Richardson speaks on the monetary transmission mechanism to domestic financial conditions. Details of how to watch the speech are on the website. He will not give new information on monetary policy.
• The October ANZ surveys are out this week and should give a glimpse as to how Q4 started.
• The business survey prints on Thursday. Confidence picked up in Q3 while the activity outlook stabilised. Q3 inflation expectations were steady around 2.7% while pricing intentions eased. Given headline CPI rose to 3%, the top of the RBNZ’s target band, the price/cost components will be monitored.
• Consumer confidence is out Friday. It rose 2.8% in September to 94.6, still well below December’s 100.2, but the survey was taken before the RBNZ’s 50bp rate cut on 8 October but easing was widely expected. The outsized move could drive a further improvement in October sentiment.

• CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY337.3 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPO MON

• CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.0881 MON VS 7.0928