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Fox Business has published an interview with E.J. Antoni in which the White House's nominee as the next Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner suggests that the monthly Employment Situation (ie nonfarm payrolls) report should be "suspended": 

• "Until it is corrected, the BLS should suspend issuing the monthly job reports but keep publishing the more accurate, though less timely, quarterly data... Major decision-makers from Wall Street to D.C. rely on these numbers, and a lack of confidence in the data has far-reaching consequences."
• He adds: "How on earth are businesses supposed to plan – or how is the Fed supposed to conduct monetary policy – when they don’t know how many jobs are being added or lost in our economy? It’s a serious problem that needs to be fixed immediately."
• This interview was conducted on Monday, before Antoni's nomination by the President. Though it's notable he "told FOX Business that he doesn’t believe the jobs data was intentionally manipulated, as some have suggested, but instead argues that persistent flaws in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' methodology have gone unaddressed."

The July CPI report saw further acceleration in monthly core CPI inflation but it was driven by the volatile supercore category. Instead, core goods inflation, an area of focus for tariff passthrough clues, was surprisingly soft as it only maintained the monthly clip seen in June whilst median core goods inflation moderated after a strong increase in June. 

• Core CPI inflation was exactly in line with the median unrounded analyst estimate we had seen for July at 0.32% M/M, accelerating from 0.23% in June and 0.13% in May for its strongest month since January.
• The breakdown relative to expectation was dovish however, as core goods underwhelmed (0.21% M/M vs average expectations closer to 0.4%) in a month that was expected to show increasing signs of tariff passthrough ahead of perhaps the largest monthly increases in the fall months. It follows a very similar 0.20% M/M in Jun after a weak -0.04% M/M in May.
• Notably, this came despite used cars prices exceeding expectations (0.48% M/M vs estimates closer to 0.3) although that’s still a modest increase after four consecutive monthly declines averaging -0.6% M/M.
• Indeed, MNI calculations of median core goods inflation across 56 items softened to 0.28% M/M after a particularly strong 0.44% in June and 0.29% in May. This is still a robust pace - it averaged 0.0% M/M in 2024 and 0.06% M/M in Q1 - but clearly doesn't show any further acceleration in what would have been a sign of accelerated tariff passthrough.
• The offsetting factor to softer than expected core goods inflation was core services (0.36% M/M vs average expectations around 0.30%), driven by the volatile “supercore” category at 0.48% M/M whilst rental inflation was exactly as expected.
• Airfares played a large role here (4.0% vs 1.5% expected) and as always won’t feed into PCE. Some notable PCE inputs meanwhile saw partly offsetting large moves from booming dental services (2.6% M/M, 4.3% of supercore CPI) and further declines in lodging (-1.0% M/M, 6.4% of supercore).
• Taking a step back, core CPI inflation firmed to 3.06% Y/Y (cons 3.0) after 2.93% Y/Y for its strongest since Feb 2025. Both three- and six-month run rates are tracking softer than this, at 2.8% and 2.4% annualized respectively.
• Adding to the net dovish take from core CPI details, headline CPI undershot with 0.20% M/M in July (MNI median 0.24) owing to downside surprises in both food (0.05% M/M vs expectations 0.25%, including food at home at -0.12% M/M for only the second decline in the past fifteen months) and energy (-1.1% vs 0.6%, despite gasoline being as expected).
• It saw headline CPI inflation little changed at 2.70% Y/Y after 2.67% in June, holding the prior acceleration from the April low of 2.31% Y/Y. 

Ukraine and Russia have intensified long-range strikes and ground operations ahead of Friday’s summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump in Alaska.

• Ukraine's Security Service reports that Ukrainian drones hit a warehouse facility in Russia’s Tatarstan region - around 1,300 kilometres from the front line - which Kyiv claims houses an assembly plant for foreign drone components. The strike is the second this week targeting the facility, and follows a series of strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an address yesterday that Russia is, “redeploying their troops ... for new offensive operations," warning Russia is, “not preparing for a cease-fire or an end to the war.”
• NYT reported earlier Russian forces have moved "several miles into Ukrainian-held territory in the east, threatening to outflank Ukraine’s positions."
• Finland-based military analyst Pasi Paroinen writes on X that Russian forces have “rapidly infiltrat[ed] past Ukrainian lines at a depth of roughly 17km during the past three days." A notable advance considering Moscow made few “meaningful net gains in terms of territory,” during June/July.
• The moves appear to be posturing ahead of the Alaska talks, with Trump acknowledging yesterday that there will be some “land swapping” in a likely deal.
• While Trump downplayed the prospect of a deal with Putin, the outcome in Alaska could set the tone for a potential upcoming meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy, with Kyiv fearing that Trump could be convinced to advocate for unfavourable ceasefire terms.