US TSYS: Yields Rising on 5Th Straight Weekly Claims: Low Fire/Hire

Atlanta Fed President Bostic won't vote again on the FOMC, and is retiring in February, but told reporters including MNI Tuesday that he "would have preferred to hold rates" in December, implying he was one of the six FOMC members who pencilled in no change in end-2025 rates in the Dot Plot. Additionally he said that for 2026 "I didn't pencil in any cuts, because I think the economy is going to be a bit stronger." Note that just 3 (of 19) participants saw rates unchanged vs pre-December cut at 3.9% at the end of next year.

• Additionally, today's employment data "haven't changed my perspective on things that much".
• He writes in an essay (link) that "after wrestling with all the considerations, today I continue to view price stability as the clearer and more pressing risk despite shifts in the labor market...as I write in mid-December, signals from the labor market remain too ambiguous to warrant an aggressive monetary policy response when weighed against the more definitive risks of ongoing inflationary pressures."
• Notably he's concerned about whether the Fed will maintain its credibility on inflation: "credibility is a cornerstone of effective monetary policy. I am mindful of just how precious and hard-won our credibility is, and how difficult it would be to regain that credibility should it slip away."

• Crude is extending a recent bearish theme, with WTI briefly sinking below $55 for the first time since Feb 2021, as oversupply concerns remain in focus and the market assesses some positive signs in Ukraine peace talks.
• WTI Jan 26 is down by 2.7% at $55.3/bbl.
• President Trump said a deal to end Russia's war in Ukraine is closer than ever after talks as US negotiators offered more significant security guarantees to Kyiv.
• For WTI futures, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend.
• A key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low, has been breached. Clearance of this level resumes the downtrend and opens $53.53.
• Elsewhere, spot gold is little changed on Tuesday, as the long-awaited US employment report painted a mixed picture of the US labour market, prompting a volatile session for the US dollar.
• Spot gold is currently 0.2% higher on the session at $4,312/oz, just below recent two-month highs.
• A bullish theme in gold remains intact, with attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at $4,381.5, the Oct 20 high, followed by $4,400 round number resistance.
• Meanwhile, copper has fallen by 0.9% to $537/lb today, leaving it 3% below last week’s highs.
• Copper futures remain in a corrective consolidation mode. However, resistance at $550 has been pierced and a clear break would open $588.70 next, the Jul 30 high.

• Stocks held narrowly mixed to weaker late Tuesday, cautiously drifting off second half lows along with Treasuries, Nasdaq outperforming. Stock indexes had reversed early gains to weaker following this morning's data that did little to shift rate guidance expectations after last week's third consecutive 25bp cut.
• Currently, the DJIA trades down 329.66 points (-0.68%) at 48079.6, S&P E-Mini Futures down 29.5 points (-0.43%) at 6851, Nasdaq up 12.6 points (0.1%) at 23068.28.
• Energy, Health Care and Financials sector shares led declines in late trade, oil and gas shares weighing on the former with crude prices broadly lower (WTI currently -1.48 to 55.34, oversupply cited):
  • Phillips 66 -5.84%, APA Corp -5.60%, Marathon Petroleum -5.06%, Halliburton -4.33%, Baker Hughes -4.24% and Coterra Energy -3.90%.
  • Humana -5.74%, Pfizer -4.60%, Centene Corp -4.46%, Molina Healthcare -3.32% and Bio-Techne Corp -3.22%.
  • Progressive Corp -2.09%, Bank of New York Mellon -2.03%, Aflac -1.93%, Brown & Brown -1.92% and Fiserv -1.91%.
• On the positive side, a mix of Consumer Discretionary/Staples and Technology sector shares continued to lead advances in late trade: Comcast Corp +4.93%, Estee Lauder Cos +3.23%, United Airlines Holdings +3.18%, Sandisk Corp +2.78%, Dell Technologies +2.31%, Zoetis +2.29% and Vistra Corp +2.23%.