US TSYS: Yesterday’s Rally Consolidated, 20Y Auction Leads Calendar
- Treasuries are marginally firmer overnight, with intraday gains earlier helped by softer than expected UK in what’s otherwise seen little moves of note.
- Today’s 20Y re-open highlights an otherwise thin docket after last month’s solid auction.
- Trump’s NATO meeting will also be watched later on, as will his comments more broadly throughout the day. He yesterday urged Senate Republicans to hold the line on the government shutdown – now the second longest in history – whilst also floating that the meeting with China’s Xi maybe won’t happen albeit having said he expects to make a good deal with Xi just beforehand.
- Cash yields are 0.6-1.0bp lower across the curve.
- TYZ5 trades unchanged at 113-24 in what has been a particularly narrow range of 113-21 to 113-25 under subdued cumulative volumes of 200k.
- The bull cycle remains intact, with resistance seen at 114-02 (Oct 17 high) before 114-10 (Apr 7 high continuation), whilst support is seen at 113-03+ (20-day EMA).
- Data: Weekly MBA mortgage applications (0700ET)
- Coupon issuance: US Tsy $13B 20Y Bond re-open - 91210UN6 (1300ET). Last month’s 20Y auction saw a small 0.2bp trade through along with more encouraging internals, with a bounce in bid-to-cover and indirect take-up along with the lowest dealer take since mid-2024.
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $69B 17W bill auction (1130ET)
- Politics: Trump in NATO meeting (1600ET)
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 114-15 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 114-10 High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 2: 114-00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 113-29 High Sep 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 112-26+ @ 11:29 BST Sep 20
- SUP 1: 112-22/112-15+ Low Sep 19 / High Aug 5 and 14
- SUP 2: 112-08+ 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support
- SUP 4: 110-25 Low Aug 1
The pullback in Treasury futures from their recent highs appear corrective. Price has moved through the 20-day EMA, at 112-28+. The break signals scope for a deeper retracement and attention turns to the 50-day EMA, at 112-08+ and the next key support. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger has been defined at 113-29, the Sep 11 high.
SOFR: Short Setting & Long Cover In Futures On Friday, No Notable Themes
OI data points to a mix of net long cover and short setting in SOFR futures on Friday, as contracts finished flat to lower.
- There wasn’t much in the way of meaningful themes to highlight, with most positioning swings proving to be fairly limited.
| 19-Sep-25 | 18-Sep-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRU5 | 1,468,061 | 1,460,339 | +7,722 | Whites | +42,602 |
SFRZ5 | 1,570,799 | 1,564,152 | +6,647 | Reds | -22,359 |
SFRH6 | 1,169,874 | 1,152,319 | +17,555 | Greens | +5,845 |
SFRM6 | 1,044,435 | 1,033,757 | +10,678 | Blues | -4,148 |
SFRU6 | 938,525 | 940,105 | -1,580 |
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SFRZ6 | 1,034,680 | 1,043,224 | -8,544 |
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SFRH7 | 743,217 | 756,465 | -13,248 |
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SFRM7 | 813,709 | 812,696 | +1,013 |
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SFRU7 | 662,156 | 657,465 | +4,691 |
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SFRZ7 | 709,833 | 708,883 | +950 |
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SFRH8 | 438,357 | 434,949 | +3,408 |
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SFRM8 | 354,151 | 357,355 | -3,204 |
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SFRU8 | 269,667 | 272,951 | -3,284 |
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SFRZ8 | 296,047 | 294,487 | +1,560 |
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SFRH9 | 186,977 | 189,131 | -2,154 |
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SFRM9 | 176,221 | 176,491 | -270 |
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