STIR: Yesterday's Highs Contain Upside In Euribor Futures For Now

• RES 4: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6         
• RES 2: 165.21/43 High May 13 / High Nov 8 2024 
• RES 1: 163.41/64.07 High May 22 / 15 
• PRICE: 162.87 @ 08:00 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 161.09 Low May 23      
• SUP 2: 160.99 Low Apr 22  
• SUP 3: 160.01 50% Retracement Feb’25 - May’25 Upleg
• SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9  

EURJPY has recently traded through a key support at 162.29, the 50-day EMA. The clear break undermines a bearish theme and signals scope for a possible deeper retracement. This would open 160.99, the Apr 22 low. Clearance of this level would expose 160.01, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 165.21, the May 13 high. First resistance is 163.41, high May 22. 

Trump’s delay of tariffs on the EU supports global equity index futures ahead of the European cash open, pointing to a positive start to the week for the major indices.

• Euro Stoxx 50 futures: +1.63%
• DAX futures: +1.67%
• CAC 40 futures: +1.26%
• FTSE MIB futures: +1.50%
• SMI futures: +0.94%

Norwegian April credit growth was 4.1% Y/Y (vs 3.8% prior), the highest rate since September 2023. Norges Bank is most focused on spot inflationary pressures in determining when to start its easing cycle, with credit data (alongside the firmer-than-expected Q1 GDP reading and still-low unemployment rate) suggesting that the economy is coping resiliently with policy rates at 4.5%.

• The April acceleration was spurred by another notable increase in non-financial corporation credit growth to 2.7% Y/Y (vs 2.2% in March, 1.5% in February). Corporate lending is recovering from a low base, but recent momentum is nonetheless notable.
• Household credit growth (which accounts for 60% of total public debt) inched up to 4.2% Y/Y (vs 4.1% prior), its highest since March 2023.
• Meanwhile, the more volatile municipal government lending growth rose 7.4% Y/Y (vs 7.1% prior).