EM CEEMEA CREDIT: YapiKredit: New Issue PNC5.5 AT1 - FV

Aug-27 08:23

(YKBNK: Ba3/-/BB-)

IPT: 8.75% Area

FV: 8.45%

  • YapiKredit issuing a USD PNC5.5 AT1. YapiKredit already has a 9.743% PNCApr29 which is around 7.96% yield or z-spread of 455bp. In terms of peers Halkbank (Ba3/-/B+) 9.3% PNC Jun30 is at 8.29% or z-spread 485bp, Vakif Bank (Ba3/-/B+) 10.117% PNC APR29 is around 7.95% yield or z-spread of 455bp, Akbank 9.3686% PNC Mar29 is around 7.73% yield or 432bp z-spread and Turkiye Sinai Kalinma Bankasi (Ba3/-/B+pos)  9.75% Mar29 is round 8.1% yield or 470 z-spread. Adjusting for maturity and ratings we estiamate a FV of 8.45% yield or z-spread of 505bp.
  • As a reminder during 2Q 25 earnings season, Turkish banks reported higher swap costs as a result of rates volatility and Yapi Kredit was no different. For Yapi Kredit, during 2Q 25 swap costs were +43% QoQ and NIM weaker at 1.89%, down from 2.09% at the end of Q125. F&C +16% QoQ, resulted in core revenues +8% QoQ. Net income was reported at TRY11.3bn -1% QoQ.
  • NPL’s in Q225 were steady at 3.4%. Capital ratio’s were slightly weaker with CET-1 at the end of 2Q 25 at 9.9% from 10.7% at the end of 1Q 25 and CAR 13.1% from 14.4%.

Historical bullets

GILTS: /STIR: Goldman Hold Long SONIA Vs Euribor, Eye On QT & Reduced Gilt Risk

Jul-28 07:53

Goldman Sachs note that “despite the previous week’s inflationary speed bump, the UK curve outperformed last week, as soggy activity data insulated gilts from bearish price action in other markets. This muted spillover points to the continuing calming in UK-specific risk premium that had been a feature of UK macro assets in recent years. As inflation risk subsides, the half-life of bouts of gilt volatility seems to be shrinking”.

  • They go on to suggest that gilts should “get additional support as the BoE slows the pace of QT from October onwards. Although the pace of active sales picks up in our forecasts, we expect the BoE to skew away from long-end sales. As a result, we maintain our constructive GBP vs EUR rates and continue to recommend long SFIZ6 vs. ERZ6”.

EQUITIES: Estoxx outright Put Buyer

Jul-28 07:47

SX5E (15th Aug) 4900p, bought for 4.70 in ~8.4k.

US TSY OPTIONS: Weekly TY Option

Jul-28 07:45

TY Weekly Option, Friday NFP Expiry:

  • TY 111p, bought for '22 in ~5.11k.