EM ASIA CREDIT: Xiaomi: drafting car safety rules

March household spending was weaker-than-expected falling 0.3% m/m to be up 3.5% y/y after an upwardly-revised +0.3% m/m & 3.6% y/y. Q1 volume data was also released, which is now seasonally adjusted. It showed no growth on the quarter, in line with retail sales, to be up only 0.9% y/y after +1.6% q/q & 2.3% y/y in Q4, consistent with the view that the RBA is likely to ease 25bp on May 20. Private consumption in the national accounts is likely to be close to flat in Q1 when it is released on June 4. 

Australia household consumption volumes q/q% sa

• The decline in March was impacted by Cyclone Alfred with it falling 1.3% m/m in Queensland but food spending there rose 2.9% m/m.
• The March weakness was driven particularly by services spending which fell 0.7% m/m but is still up 5.1% y/y. Goods rose 0.1% m/m to be up 2.3% y/y.
• Non-discretionary expenditure continues to exceed discretionary as cost-of-living pressures persist. The former was flat in March to be up 4.4% y/y, while the latter fell 0.4% m/m to be steady at 3.0% y/y.
• The softness in Q1 volumes was driven by alcohol & tobacco spending (-5.9% q/q & -16.5% y/y) and hotels & restaurants (-1.2% q/q & -0.7% y/y). Recreation & culture posted another solid quarterly rate. 

Australia consumption discretionary vs non-discretionary y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/ABS

ACGBs (YM -3.0 & XM -6.0) are weaker and near Sydney session cheaps.

• Building approvals fell 8.8% m/m (estimate -1.5%) in March versus a revised -0.2% in February.
• “Australia's household spending declined 0.3% in March, contrary to a forecast 0.2% increase, due to the impact of a major storm in the nation's northeast. Spending dropped in Queensland by 1.3%, particularly in transport and health, and nationally, six of the nine spending categories declined in March.” (per BBG)
• Cash US tsys dealings in today’s Asia-Pac session with Japan out. TYM5 is slightly cheaper.
• Cash ACGBs are 3-6bps cheaper, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -2bps.
• Today’s auction result extended the recent trend of firm pricing for ACGBs, with the weighted average yield printing 0.28bps through prevailing mids, according to Yieldbroker. However, demand moderated somewhat, as reflected by a cover ratio of 2.4833x, down from 2.7067x at the previous auction.
• The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing flat to -4 across contracts.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bps firmer across meetings today. A 50bp rate cut in May is given a 3% probability, with a cumulative 103bps of easing priced by year-end.

Beijing will address global uncertainty by strengthening financial cooperation with the expanded ASEAN+3 group that adds Japan, South Korea and China to the bloc, said Finance Minister Lan Fo’an at the 28th ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in Milan. The group agreed to launch a new rapid financing facility under the Chiang Mai Initiative using the yuan and other freely usable currencies. (Source: Securities Times)