MNI SNB Review - September 2025: All Neutral

DOWNLOAD FULL REPORT HERE

Full pdf includes a rough transcript of the post-announcement press conference Q&A.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• SNB held its policy rate at 0.0%, meeting market and analyst consensus
• The conditional inflation forecast and press statement remained materially unchanged. However, it remains unclear if Schlegel’s non-mention of side effects of potential negative rates in his opening remarks was an interesting development and could conceivably be argued to be a an implicit dovish or hawkish policy signal. We watch for any commentary on this in the new meeting summaries
• In the press Q&A, Schlegel refrained from giving forward guidance, drawing attention to the bank’s meeting-by-meeting approach, but did continue to mention the high bar for a further cut
• Market pricing marginally moved in a hawkish direction over the decision announcement and press Q&A, with now a mere 6bps of easing being priced through June 2026