COMMODITIES: WTI Futures Sharply Reverse This Week's Earlier Move Higher
WTI futures traded sharply higher earlier this week. This continues to signal scope for an extension of the bull cycle near-term, and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at $72.91, the Feb 11 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme. Support to watch is $69.26, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a reversal. The trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and today’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. The next upside objective is $3196.2, a Fibonacci projection, ahead of the $3200.0 handle. On the downside, key short-term support lies at $3026.6, the 20-day EMA.
- WTI Crude down $2.38 or -3.32% at $69.35
- Natural Gas down $0.02 or -0.47% at $4.036
- Gold spot down $6.89 or -0.22% at $3127.77
- Copper down $10.5 or -2.08% at $493.3
- Silver down $0.78 or -2.31% at $33.102
- Platinum down $1.51 or -0.15% at $975.24
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EU: Commission President Outlines 'ReArm Europe' Plan
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has outlined the Commission's 'ReArm Europe' plan intended to significantly boost defence and security spending at the EU and member state level.
- One proposal is to activate the 'national escape clause' of the Stability and Growth Pact that will allow member states to increase domestic defence spending without entering the excessive deficit procedure.
- Proposes a new instrument that can put forwards EUR150B in loans to member states for defence investment. VdL: 'It will help member states to pool demand and buy together'. Claims that it can be used to the benefit of Ukraine.
- Third proposal seeks to allow member states to decide if they want to use cohesion policy funding to go towards defence spending (this would usually be used for infrastructure spending, or social or business investment).
- VdL also claims that ReArm Europe will seek to increase private sector investment in defence and security.
- Claims that the programme "could mobilise close to EUR800B for a safe and resilient Europe."
The activation of the escape clause and repurposing of cohesion funding was reported on 2 March by MNI's Policy team (see 'MNI: European Commission Eyes EUR100Bln Defence Tool-Source', 2 March, for access contact sales@marketnews.com). EU leaders will meet for a special European Council summit in Brussels on 6 March, with defence, security, and support for Ukraine.
NOK: Oil and Gas Pullback Weighs On NOK
Weaker brent crude and natural gas prices have weighed on the NOK this morning, with EURNOK 0.5% higher on the session.
- The rally in EURNOK sees trendline resistance drawn from the August 5th 2024 high (11.7754 today) pierced, with the Jan 21 high at 11.8260 the next topside target.
- NOKSEK has seen a more modest 0.15% sell-off, with the SEK also under pressure amid today’s pullback in European equities following yesterday’s US tariff implementation on Mexico, Canada and China. However, yesterday’s close below key multi-year support at 0.9500 was an important bearish development, with rallies short of the 20-day EMA at 0.9606 considered corrective.
- Crude markets have extended yesterday’s decline following reports that OPEC will go ahead with its output normalisation from April counter to market expectation. The impact of US tariffs and retaliatory measures on global demand is also weighing on prices.
- Meanwhile, TTF prices are also softer with storage withdrawals falling below normal amid warm weather this week while progress towards peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is assessed.
GOLD: Gold gains $25.
- Gold extends decent gains, that's over $25 bucks since Europe has started to Join the session 2 hours ago.
- Silver is now also starting to see some spillover bids, and next immediate resistance in Gold comes at $2920.8/2956.2 - High Feb 27 / 24 and the bull trigger.
