COMMODITIES: WTI Edges Higher Amid Middle East Tensions, Gold Extends Gains

• Crude has climbed to its highest level since April 22, supported by further US threats against Iran’s energy industry. Earlier support came from optimism on trade war de-escalation.
• WTI Jun 25 is up by 2.9% at $63.7/bbl.
• The US State Department announced further sanctions targeting Iran’s oil trade, days after Iran and the US concluded a fourth round of nuclear talks in Iran.
• Today’s move has pierced key resistance at $63.56, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal, opening $66.41, the Apr 4 high.
• Meanwhile, spot gold has edged up by 0.3% to $3,247/oz, aided by the weaker dollar, following softer-than-expected US CPI data.
• In the very short-term, analysts at Saxo Bank say that gold will trade in a consolidation mode due to the major de-escalation in trade tensions between the US and China.
• Key short-term support to watch is $3,202.0, the May 1 low. A clear break of this level would undermine the short-term bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open $3,164.3, 61.8% of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg.
• Elsewhere, copper has rallied by 2.1% to $472/lb, buoyed by the weakness in the dollar.
• Key short-term resistance has been defined at $498.25, the Apr 23 high. A break of this is required to reinstate a bullish theme.
• A resumption of weakness would expose $436.00, the Apr 10 low, ahead of $407.40, the Apr 7 low and key support.

• RES 4: 151.21 High Mar 28 and a key resistance    
• RES 3: 150.49 High Apr 2
• RES 2: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 1: 148.54/65 76.4% of Mar 28 - Apr 22 bear leg / High May 12
• PRICE: 147.76 @ 16:50 BST May 13
• SUP 1: 146.28/144.66 50- and 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 142.36 Low May 6 
• SUP 3: 141.97 Low Apr 29  
• SUP 4: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger

The primary trend condition in USDJPY is bearish and gains since Apr 22 appear corrective. This corrective cycle remains in play, for now. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 146.28, has been cleared, strengthening a bullish theme. The move high has exposed 148.54, a Fibonacci retracement (pierced). On the downside, a reversal lower would refocus attention on 142.36, May 6 low. A break of it would signal the end of the correction.    

The House Ways and Means Committee will meet shortly to mark up the tax portion of President Donald Trump's 'Big Beautiful' reconciliation bill. Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-MO) released his final bill text yesterday evening. LIVESTREAM

• The bill reinstates some of Trump's tax requests and drops a last-minute call for a ‘millionaire tax’. It raises the federal debt limit by $4 trillion - lower than the Senate’s proposed $4.5 trillion.
• The bill makes Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent, rather than settling for a temporary extension as some analysts predicted.
• The bill includes tax relief for tipped income, seniors, and overtime pay, but only for four years and with income restrictions. Tax relief on social security payments has been dropped in favour of new language on seniors.
• The bill includes deductions for interest on auto loans for US cars, a recent proposal from Trump to bolster domestic manufacturing.
• The bill increases the Child Tax Credit from $2,000 to $2,500 for four years, a campaign proposal championed by Vice President JD Vance (he wanted $5,000). 
• Notably, tax credit proposals “appears to amount to a full back-door repeal of the [Inflation Reduction Act]”, according to analysis from Heatmap.
• It provides a source of revenue by raising taxes on university endowments from 1.4% to 21%.
• The bill raises the SALT cap from $10,000 to $30,000, a level SALT Republicans rejected last week.
• Notably, the bill doesn't close the carried interest 'loophole', a win for hedge funds and private equity.