IRAN: WSJ: Senior Officials Removed From "Target List" Ahead Of Possible Talks
Rounding up a few pieces from the last hour or so, as attention remains firmly on potential US-Iran ...
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EURUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 1.2081 High Jan 27 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.2007 76.4% retracement of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.1961 61.8% retracement of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.1857/1929 High Feb 18 / 10
- PRICE: 1.1795 @ 19:31 GMT Feb 23
- SUP 1: 1.1742 Low Feb 19
- SUP 2: 1.1693 76.4% retracement of the Jan 19 - 27 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.1670 Low Jan 22
- SUP 4: 1.1573 Low Jan 19 and a key support
A bear cycle in EURUSD remains intact - for now. Last week’s breach of support at 1.1766, the Feb 6 low, strengthens the current bear theme and signals scope for an extension towards 1.1693, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. This suggests that the entire bear leg since Jan 27, is likely a correction. Key S/T resistance to watch is 1.1929, the Feb 10 high. A break of this level would be bullish.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H6) Bullish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 114-00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 113-29+ High Oct 17 ‘25 high and a key M/T resistance
- RES 2: 113-22+ High Nov 22 ‘25 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 113-14 High Feb 17
- PRICE: 113-12+ @ 19:58 GMT Feb 23
- SUP 1: 112-23+ Low Feb 20
- SUP 2: 112-20 High Feb 11
- SUP 3: 112-12 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 111-26 Low Feb 9
A bull-wave in Treasuries remains in play and today’s strong start to the week reinforces the bullish theme and highlights the fact that the latest pullback has been a correction. Attention is on 113-14, the Feb 17 high and short-term bull trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 113-22+, the Nov 22 ‘25 high and a key resistance. First support lies at 112-23+, the Feb 20 low.
BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: UK Yields Close At Multi-Month/Year Lows
EGBs and Gilts gained further ground Monday in a largely risk-off session.
- Multiple factors led to early gains, including the US's imposition of a 15% global tariffs (announced after Friday's European cash close, and replacing the IEEPA tariffs struck down Friday by the US Supreme Court), as well US-Iran tensions.
- Tech companies and other AI-impacted industries took a further leg lower in the afternoon, bringing core European yields to session lows into the close.
- In data, Germany's IFO survey beat expectations in February, with manufacturing, services and construction sentiment improving.
- BoE's Taylor reaffirmed his well-defined dovish view, bringing little market impact.
- On the day, Gilts outperformed Bunds across most of the curve with a slight bull-flattening lean across both. 10Y Gilt yields saw their lowest close of the year (4.314%); 2Y saw the lowest yield close since April 2023.
- Periphery/semi-core EGB spreads were little changed on the day.
- Tuesday's schedule includes French confidence surveys and UK CBI, with numerous speakers including BOE's Bailey, Pill, Greene, and Taylor in Treasury Select Committee testimony.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 1.9bps at 2.035%, 5-Yr is down 3bps at 2.307%, 10-Yr is down 2.6bps at 2.711%, and 30-Yr is down 1.6bps at 3.384%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 1.5bps at 3.563%, 5-Yr is down 3.1bps at 3.748%, 10-Yr is down 3.9bps at 4.314%, and 30-Yr is down 3.7bps at 5.12%.
- Italian BTP spread up 0.5bps at 60.8bps / French OAT down 0.1bps at 56.4bps
