US: Window For Passing Ukraine Aid Tightens Ahead Of Holiday Recess
Erik Wasser as Bloomberg reporting on X: "Lawmakers tell me there is no way House will pass Ukraine aid in 2023. [House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA)] is firm on House leaving by Dec. 15 and no Senate deal in sight."
- Andrew Desiderio at Punchbowl News notes that the timeline for border negotiations, crucial to unlocking a vote on aid funding, is likely tied to passage of the National Defense Authorization Act: "[Senate Majority Whip John] Thune [R-SD] says NDAA should be done by the end of next week. This effectively sets a deadline for border/Ukraine talks. If no progress by then, Senate could go home for the holidays."
- There is still a baseline expectation that the Senate will reach some form of agreement on the US-Mexico border but time is tight. If Congress fails to legislate aid by year's end the funding package will be squeezed by budget negotiations.
- To ease the deal, President Biden indicated yesterday he would be willing to make concessions on border policy, rather than merely increasing funding and border security measures.
- Lead Democrat negotiator, Senator Mike Murphy (D-CT), told Punchbowl a short time ago that he expects a GOP counter-offer from Senator James Lankford (R-OK) today.
- Punchbowl notes that the, "Senate is leaving town for the weekend this afternoon but Murphy hints he and Lankford are staying."
- More analysis on the state of negotiations following yesterday's failed Senate vote in today's edition of our MNI US Daily Brief.
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LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: More Fed Speak, Tsy 10Y Note Auction
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Nov-08 0515 Fed's Cook Speaks on Financial Stability in Dublin
- Nov-08 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (-2.1%, --)
- Nov-08 0915 Fed's Powell Delivers Opening Remarks statistics conf
- Nov-08 1000 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM (1.8%, 0.9%)
- Nov-08 1000 Wholesale Inventories MoM (0.0%, 0.0%)
- Nov-08 1130 US Tsy $75B 17W Bill auction
- Nov-08 1300 US Tsy $40B 10Y note auction (91282CJJ1)
- Nov-08 1340 NY Fed Williams keynote remarks statistics conf, text, no Q&A
- Nov-08 1400 Fed's Barr Speaks, Comm Reinvestment Act, moderated Q&A
- Nov-08 1645 Fed VC Jefferson closing remarks statistics conf, text, no Q&A
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Vol And 1x2 Put Spread Buying
- ERM4 96.375^ bought for 43.25 in 2k
- ERH4 95.25/95.125 1x2 put spread bought for 2 in 2.5k
PORTUGAL: Snap Election Would Be Closely Contested Affair
Following the resignation of PM Antonio Costa earlier today, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is set to hold meetings with heads of the main political parties this week before deciding on whether to dissolve the Assembly of the Republic that would usher in snap elections. The alternative would be to allow the governing centre-left Socialist Party (PS) to nominate/elect a new leader to take over from Costa as PM. However, the nature of Costa's resignation involving a corruption probe into his office and gov't ministries could be deemed so serious that the president deems a snap election necessary.
- Since the Jan 2022 general election, in which the PS won a majority of 120 seats in the 230-seat parliament, support for the party has declined from 41.4% in that vote to an average of 28.4% in October. If repeated in an election this would certainly see the PS lose its majority, requiring it to build a coalition with other parties, namely the left-wing populist Left Bloc (BE) and the communist CDU.
- An election could deliver a change in gov't, especially if the scandal hits PS support. The centre-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) - polling an average of 26.1% in Oct - could work with the libertarian Liberal Initiative (IL), itself polling 7.0% in Oct.
- The wildcard would be the right-wing nationalist CHEGA! (Enough!). PSD President Luís Montenegro stated in the summer that "no is no”, saying there would be not “political governance agreement” with the party, and “there’s no point in fuelling this issue any further”. However, it remains to be seen whether this stance holds up should a PSD-IL-Chega coalition carry a majority post-election.
Source: Aximage, Intercampus, ICS/ISCTE, CESOP, MNI
