US DATA: Widespread Downside Surprises In Core Categories
Driving the lower-than-expected core CPI readings: pretty much every major category, with surprising deflation in core goods prices (-0.54%, led by used and new vehicles and apparel, vs +0.06% in April), with core services also on the soft side at 0.17% (0.29% April) - shelter and airfares the major downside surprises. See table:
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US TSY FUTURES: Early June'25-September'25 Roll Update: 10Y Leading
Tsy quarterly futures roll from June'25 to September'25 gaining momentum this morning with the 10Y contract leading volumes, percentage complete 1-4% across the curve ahead the "First Notice" date on May 30. Current roll details:
- TUM5/TUU5 appr 7,700 from -9.12 to -8.5, -8.62 last
- FVM5/FVU5 appr 14,200 from -3.75 to -3.0, -3.25 last
- TYM5/TYU5 appr 147,600 from -3.25 to -1.75, -2.25 last
- UXYM5/UXYU5 less than 700 from 2.5 to 3.75, 3.5 last
- USM5/USU5 appr 1,500 from 9.0 to +9.75, 9.25 last
- WNM5/WNU5 appr 1,300 from 5.75 to 6.0, 5.75 last
- Reminder, June futures won't expire until next month: 10s, 30s and Ultras on June 18, 2s and 5s on June 30. June Tsy options expire May 23.
GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK: Week Ahead 12-18 May
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MNI's Political Risk team has published its Week Ahead article looking at the major political events taking place across the world over the coming seven days. Includes info on Trump's travels to the Middle East; Ukraine allies setting Russia's Putin a ceasefire deadline; and elections in Poland, Portugal & Romania.
Full article PDF attached below:
BUNDS: Under heavy pressure
- Schatz is sold in over 6k at the low, and Bund is still ticking lower, but nothing fast in terms of pace, given that Volumes are above average, all type of accounts are likely involved.
- Looking at the next support in Bund, this comes at 129.28 50.0% retracement of the Mar 11 - Apr 7 rally.
- But in Yield terms, next resistance comes at 2.72%.
- Today, reference 129.84, this Yield level is at 129.03.
