POLAND: Wibor Rates

• Euribor futures are leading the way lower this morning after the higher than expected Spanish HICP print as well as German regional CPI prints also coming in on the high side. Reds are the biggest movers, down up to 9.5 ticks on the day. Despite ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane strongly hinting against 50bp hikes in the upcoming meetings, markets still see risks and price 57bp by September. 113bp is now priced by year-end, up around 12bp from Friday's close.
• SONIA futures are being dragged lower by the moves in Euribor this morning with little new news in the UK. Reds are down up to 7.5 ticks with markets now back to pricing a 65% probability of a 50bp hike by August and pricing 131bp of hikes by year-end.
• Eurodollar futures have seen the smallest moves, but with other US markets closed for Memorial Day, liquidity is likely to be a bit constrained today. Whites and Reds are down up to 5.0 ticks.

EZ MAY ECONOMIC SENTIMENT INDICATOR 105.0; APR 104.9r

EZ MAY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE -21.1 (FLASH CONFIRMED); APR -22.0

EZ MAY INDUSTRIAL CONFIDENCE 6.3; APR 7.7r

EZ MAY SERVICES CONFIDENCE 14.0; APR 13.6r

EZ MAY EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS 112.9; APR 112.6

• Eurozone economic sentiment was broadly unchanged in May at 105.0, 0.1 points above the April level. Sentiment in the EU saw a 0.5-point decrease to 104.1, largely due to lower confidence of industry managers.
• On a country level, Spain saw confidence up 4.1 points, followed by France +1.5 and Italy +0.8. Germany saw little improvement at +0.2. The Netherlands (-1.2) and Poland (-0.8) saw economic sentiment fall further in May.
• Employment expectations saw a moderate 0.3-point increase to 112.9.
• The 1.4-point fall in industry confidence was underscored by current order books seeing the steepest fall in two years. Production expectations saw a slight decline and outlooks of export order books saw substantial deterioration. At 6.3, industrial confidence was 1.2-points below forecasts.
• Service confidence ticked up by 0.4 points, however, demand expectations weakened.
• May consumer confidence was confirmed at -21.1, up 0.9 points from April. Expectations about the general economic situation worsened, however intentions to make major purchases and expectations about future financial situations saw improvements.
• The proximity of the Ukraine war coupled with surging inflation of 7.4% in April continues to see consumer confidence in starkly pessimistic territory. Tomorrow will see the May flash HICP reading, which will likely be a fresh high of 7.8%.

Source: European Commission