US TSYS: What to Watch: PMIs, Debt Ceiling, China Trade, Fed Speak Pre Blackout
Apr-21 12:34
- Off overnight highs, Treasury futures have climbed back to early Monday levels, carry-over support following Thursday's sharply lower than expected Philly Fed Mfg Index (-31.3 vs -19.3 est).
- Friday economic data limited to S&P Global PMIs at 0945ET while the last "scheduled" Fed speaker ahead the midnight policy blackout is Fed Gov Cook commenting on economic research at 1630ET. Fed blackout runs through May 4.
- Thursday's data revived a projected rate CUT slightly (FF currently imply -31bp in Dec'23 to 4.518%), carry-over short-end support this morning is receding slightly over the last few minutes.
- Markets will be keeping an eye on any developments in debt ceiling log-jam ahead a GOP package vote next Wednesday or Thursday.
- Additional focus on US China trade. Bloomberg reported Thursday that President Biden is set to sign an executive order in the coming weeks limiting investment by US companies in key parts of the Chinese economy.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
GILTS: 2Y Yield Set For Biggest Jump In Months As BoE Hike Pricing Rises
Mar-22 12:25
2Y UK yields are testing the Mar 15 session high of 3.541%. The 26bp rise today means it's set for the biggest daily yield jump since September 2022's mini-budget fiasco.
- This follows this morning's CPI beat, with BoE cumulative hike pricing to terminal up to the most since March 10 (+68bp through Sept, including 23bp Thursday).
- And follows Schatz's lead yesterday - when the German 2Y yield rose 26bp for the biggest single-day increase since 2008.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK, Jun'23 10Y Ultra Buy
Mar-22 12:21
- +5,093 UXYM3 119-27, buy through 119-24.5 post-time offer at 0814:40ET, 119-23.5 last (-11), however, as futures continue to extend lows into the US open.
BONDS: EGBs and Treasuries are extending lower
Mar-22 12:20
- Govies take another leg lower, with Bund, Gilt, BTP, OAT and Tnotes all at session lows.
- Next support in Bund is still at 134.78 (20-day EMA).
