FED: What To Watch In Today’s Fedspeak & Position Deliberations

Today’s Fedspeak comes from members at the center to dovish end of the FOMC spectrum: 

• 1205ET – NY Fed’s Williams (permanent voter) speaks on economic outlook and mon pol (text + Q&A). In a thorough CNBC interview on Aug 27, he views policy as currently “modestly restrictive” (citing neutral at 1% or a bit below) and that at some point will be appropriate to move rates down, with every meeting definitely live.
• He characterized the economy as slowing but not stalling and that he expects the recently softer GDP growth to continue. There have been a slowdown in the pace of hiring but the labor force is also growing more slowly, with the unemployment at 4.2% still historically very low.
• 1900ET – Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (’25 voter, dove) in moderated Q&A (text tbd, Q&A). Whilst historically one of the more dovish members on the FOMC, said on Aug 21 that he thought the rise in July services inflation was a “dangerous” data point that he hopes is just a blip. He thinks the current tariffs don’t look “one and done” whilst economic data more broadly are sending mixed messages. 

Other areas to watch: 

• 1000ET – Fed Governor nominee Miran testifies before the Senate banking committee. His prepared testimony released yesterday (link) didn’t reveal anything about his views on current rate policy or even the current economic outlook. It instead focused heavily on the importance of the FOMC's "independence", no doubt in light of recent criticism of the Trump administration's approach to the Fed. We of course would expect his rate leanings to sway dovish once in the position, but it's unclear how much he will reveal in his confirmation hearing back-and-forth with Senators.
• Time unknown - a potential decision by US District Court Judge Cobb in Fed Governor Cook's lawsuit against her "firing" by President Trump (a judgment had been anticipated to come as soon as Tuesday but the judge gave the Justice Department until Thursday to file another brief). It appears increasingly likely that the Trump administration won’t be able to nominate a replacement for Cook while she disputes her firing. Politico quoted Republican Senator Tillis as telling reporters yesterday “I’m not going to consider anybody until that’s been adjudicated". Tillis is on the Senate banking committee on which the Republicans have a 13-11 majority, so without his support it is hard to see them confirming a new nominee. It's still unclear however whether Cook will participate in the September FOMC meeting that starts in just under 2 weeks' time.