OUTLOOK: What to watch
Jan-19 07:08
- The highlight of the day in DM space will be the release of the Norges Bank rate decision at 9:00GMT / 10:00CET. The deposit rate will likely be kept at 2.75% in January, in what would be the first unchanged decision since the beginning of the 2022 tightening cycle. Market pricing following the December meeting pointed to a near 50/50 toss up between an unchanged decision and a further rate hike. This has since moderated, with lower expected market rates among trading partners helping drag domestic expectations lower in tandem. As such, markets now assign only an outside chance of a rate hike at this meeting, meaning markets could prove uneventful in the wake of an on hold decision. However, conversely if the Norges Bank was to hike by 25bp today we would expect a decent market reaction, particularly if more hikes are signaled ahead. For the full MNI Norges Bank Preview click here.
- Elsewhere today we will have supply from Spain and France and some housing data, weekly claims and Philly Fed data from the US.
- Today we will hear from ECB's Lagarde and Knot as well as Fed's Collins and Brainard.
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AUDUSD TECHS: Pierces The 50-Day EMA
Dec-20 07:05
- RES 4: 0.6976 2.00 proj of the Oct 13 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6956 High Aug 30
- RES 2: 0.6909 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg
- RES 1: 0.6744/6893 Intraday high / High Dec 13 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6663 @ 07:03 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 0.6629 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 0.6585 Low Nov 21 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 0.6531 50.0% retracement of the Oct 13 - Dec 13 climb
- SUP 4: 0.6500 Round number support
A sharp sell-off in AUDUSD last Thursday signalled a S/T top and today’s move lower has reinforced this turn. The 20-day EMA has been cleared and attention is on the 50-day EMA at 0.6661 - this average has been pierced today. A clear break would suggest potential for a deeper retracement towards 0.6585, the Nov 21 low. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 0.6893, Dec 13 high. A break would resume the recent uptrend.
US TSY FUTURES: TY Blocked
Dec-20 07:04
Latest block trade lodged at 06:47:12 London/01:47:12 NY:
- TYH3 2,500 lots blocked at 113-17+, looks like a seller.
MNI: GERMANY NOV PPI -3.9% M/M (FCST -1.7%); OCT -4.2% M/M
Dec-20 07:03
- MNI: GERMANY NOV PPI -3.9% M/M (FCST -1.7%); OCT -4.2% M/M
- GERMANY NOV PPI +28.2% Y/Y (FCST +31.1%); OCT +34.5% Y/Y
