OUTLOOK: What to watch
Nov-10 07:15
- The main focus of the day (indeed, of the week) will be the release of US inflation data at 13:30GMT / 14:30CET. Core CPI inflation is seen slowing slightly to 0.5% M/M in October after surprise persistence at 0.58% in Sept. The analyst survey is skewed slightly lower although the Cleveland Fed Nowcast implies upside risk. The bulk of the expected moderation in October core is seen coming from used cars declining at a faster pace and a health insurance reset. So it’ll likely be changes outside of these components that are of note, especially service components with rents expected to continue to increase extremely strongly. A similar 0.1-0.2pt beat to last month could see a delay in the Fed’s anticipated downshift to 50bp hikes into 2023 or augur a longer string of hikes, either way pushing the terminal rate higher still and driving a sharp flattening in the Treasury curve. For the full MNI CPI Preview click here.
- There are a large number of speakers due up today. We will hear from the Fed's Waller, Harker, Logan, Daly, Mester and George as well as the ECB's de Cos, Schnabel, Kazimir and Vasle and BOE's Ramsden.
- In terms of other data this morning we have Italian industrial production and US weekly claims numbers.
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Historical bullets
EGB SYNDICATION: German new 30y 1.80% Aug-53 Bund: Books open
Oct-11 07:08
- Maturity: 15 August 2053
- Size: EUR Benchmark (MNI expects up to E6bln)
- Guidance: 0% Aug-52 Bund + 2.5bps area
- Settlement: 18 Oct 2022 (T+5)
- ISIN: DE0001102614
- Bookrunners: Barclays / BNPP / DB (B&D/DM) / GSBE / JPM
- Timing: Books are open. Today's business
From market source
GILTS: A volatile open for Gilts
Oct-11 07:07
- A volatile open for Gilt, with 82 ticks range (92.35/93.17, low/high) in under 3k lots traded.
- The open was actually the session low 92.35.
- Small resistance is at 93.21, followed by 93.71.
EQUITIES: Selling orders going through
Oct-11 07:01
- Selling orders going through in Equity futures, Nasdaq sold in over 1k, sends Estoxx (VGZ2) to session low.
- Support in VGZ2 is still seen at 3321.00 initially
- Further push lower in Risk, will keep the USD underpinned, Cable test the 1.1000 handle.
