OUTLOOK: What to Watch: Fed Speak From NABE Bank Conf
Tsys trading softer/near recent overnight lows with long end following Bunds lower. Very light volumes (TYZ2<130k) due to Columbus Day US bank holiday - full session for Globex, however, while holiday's in Japan, Korea, and Canada contributing to thin markets.
- No data today, but couple of Fed speakers on tap: Chicago Fed President Evans (0900ET) and Fed vice-chair Lael Brainard (1300ET) at NABE bank conference today.
- Later this week: Sep FOMC minutes on Wednesday at 1400ET, data focus on CPI Thursday at 0830ET.
- Geopol: German Gov't-Talks On Ukraine To Take Place Tuesday: Wires carrying confirmation from a German gov't spox stating that the G7 (of which Germany currently holds the presidency) will convene an emergency meeting on Tuesday to discuss the latest Russian missile attacks on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities.
- Wires carrying comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin speaking to meeting of the Russian National Security Council: says attack on bridge linking Crimea to Russia is 'an act of terrorism' that was carried out by 'Ukrainian special services'. Alleges that Ukraine also tried to blow up Turkish stream pipeline.
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USDCAD TECHS: Fails To Hold On To This Week’s Highs
- RES 4: 1.3369 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.3300 High Nov 4 2020
- RES 2: 1.3224 High Jul 14 and key resistance
- RES 1: 1.3105/3209 Intraday high High Sep 8
- PRICE: 1.3046 @ 16:19 BST Sep 9
- SUP 1: 1.2960 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.2895 Low Aug 25 and key near-term support
- SUP 3: 1.2828 Low Aug 17
- SUP 4: 1.2770 Low Aug 15
A USDCAD bullish theme remains intact, however, the pair has failed to hold on to this week’s highs and this has resulted in a corrective pullback. Price has traded below the 20-day EMA and attention turns to support at 1.2960, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would suggest scope for a deeper pullback. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 1.3324, the Jul 14 high and bull trigger.
AUDUSD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 0.7040 High Aug 16
- RES 3: 0.7009 High Aug 26 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 0.6913 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6857 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6843 @ 16:17 BST Sep 9
- SUP 1: 0.6699 Low Sep 7
- SUP 2: 0.6682 Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6612 Low May 29
A bearish theme in AUDUSD remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The continuation lower, earlier this week, strengthens bearish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the bear leg that started Aug 11. Attention is on 0.6682, the Jul 14 low and a key support plus an important bear trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 0.6857, the 20-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 146.23 2.236 proj of the Aug 2- 10 - 16 price swing
- RES 3: 145.48 High Jan 1 2015
- RES 2: 145.00 Psychological round number
- RES 1: 144.72 Intraday high
- PRICE: 143.16 @ 16:15 BST Sep 9
- SUP 1: 142.32/141.37 High Jul 21 / Low Sep 7
- SUP 2: 139.56 Low Sep 6
- SUP 3: 138.71 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 137.03 Low Aug 29
EURJPY held on to the bulk of the week’s gains into the Friday close. The recent impulsive climb reinforces current bullish conditions and maintains a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The cross has cleared resistance at 142.32, the Jul 21 high. Note that price has pierced 144.28, the Jun 28 high and a major resistance. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend. Initial support is seen at 142.32, the Jul 21 high.
