POWER: Weekly News Highlights MNI Power Service Part 1/2 Week 45

Nov-07 13:28

See below the weekly news highlights of the MNI Power Service for the week 4 – 7 November.

POWER

  • Germany’s economy minister said Monday that the government expects to launch an industrial power price in January 2026, pending the conclusion of talks with EU competition regulators.
  • Investment Funds net short positions in ICE German power continued to edge up, according to the latest COT data as of 31 October.
  • Uniper has advanced its outright power hedges for its planned German production for 2025 and 2027, with its 2026 hedging remaining unchanged, while Nordic hedging climbed for all years.
  • French hydropower reserves in week 44 increased for the second consecutive week by 1.5 percentage points to 69.6% of capacity, narrowing the deficit to the five-year average and last year’s level.
  • The load factor of Engie’s gas-fired power plant has increased to 20% this year, from 15% last year, with rising demand for gas power generation to support renewables.
  • EdF plans to finalise the conceptual design of a SMR next year, as the company aims to install up to 30 SMRs by 2050.
  • France’s CRE has awarded 129 projects for a total of 301MW of new rooftop solar PV capacity in the eleventh round at an average achieved price of €96.48/MWh.
  • France’s CRE has awarded 952.8MW of onshore wind capacity across 42 projects in the tenth tender round.
  • EdF Luminus has further delayed the start up of the 885MW Seraing CCGT in Belgium until 15 October 2026, with the starting phase set to begin in second quarter of 2026, subject to grid conditions.
  • Mammoet and EdF have signed a MoU to develop technologies and methods to improve construction efficiency for future nuclear facilities in the Netherlands.
  • Drax Group has finalised a UK government biomass subsidy deal, securing a low-carbon CfD for its four biomass units over April 2027-March 2031.
  • Centrica has made an initial £376mn investment to acquire a 15% stake in the 3.2GW Sizewell C nuclear project, while EdF has announced the financial closing of the project.
  • Swiss hydropower reserves in calendar week 44 declined by 0.3 percentage points to 77.9% of capacity, widening the deficit to the five-year average.
  • Verbund has advanced electricity hedging on the quarter for 2025-27, relatively in line with MNI’s estimations, with lower prices in 2025 and increases noted in 2026-27.
  • Verbund attributed its low 2027 hedging level to market conditions and strategic flexibility, noting that it reflects decisions made within its set bandwidth, as traders adjusted positions based on the forward curve.
  • Verbund has reported technical issues at both units at its 480MW Limberg III hydro power plant in the Kaprun group, with the inspection lasting several months.
  • Italian hydropower reserves in calendar week 44 declined by 0.03TWh to 2.66TWh. Stocks widened the deficit to the 5-year average to a fresh 2025 high.
  • Nordic hydro stocks edged down in week 44 to 80.5% of capacity, as higher power demand offset a weekly increase in precipitation. Stocks widened the deficit to the same week in 2024 to a fresh 2025 high.
  • Fingrid has set its 2026 reserve procurement volumes at 237MW for frequency-controlled disturbance reserve upward (FCR-D up) and 163MW for downward (FCR-D down).
  • Norway’s NVE has rejected the 800MW Davvi onshore wind farm in Finnmark due to environmental and cultural concerns.
  • Norway’s Statnett will invest NOK 150-200bn (€1.29-1.82bn) in the next ten years in the power grid, it said part of the system development plan.
  • Poland’s Energy Regulatory (URE) will hold the final 2025 auction for the cogeneration premium over 15-17 December, offering support for up to 15.7TWh from new and modernised CHP units.
  • PGE’s 900MW Baltica 1 offshore wind farm has received environmental approval, clearing the way for the project to compete in the December 17 CfD auction.

Historical bullets

EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Trend Needle Points North

Oct-08 13:26
  •   RES 4: 6831.38 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing 
  • RES 3: 6819.25 1.500 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
  • RES 2: 6812.29 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
  • RES 1: 6802.75 High Oct 7 
  • PRICE: 6772.25 @ 14:16 BST Oct 8
  • SUP 1: 6700.59 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 6624.25 Low Sep 25 
  • SUP 3: 6582.78 50-day EMA 
  • SUP 4: 6506.50 Low Sep 5 

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and the direction remains up. Recent fresh cycle highs confirm a continuation of the uptrend and maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6812.29, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 6700.59. It has recently been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper pullback.

EURIBOR OPTIONS: Large Outright Call Block Trade

Oct-08 13:20

ERM6 98.75c, bought for 1 in 23.3k.

PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $750M Mamoura Launched

Oct-08 13:18
  • Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
  • 10/08 $1B #Kommunalbanken Norway WNG 3Y SOFR+37
  • 10/08 $750M #Mamoura 10Y +55
  • 10/08 $Benchmark Federal Home Loan 2Y +4a
  • 10/08 $1.5B Energos Infrastructue 7NC3 investor call