US DATA: Weekly Mortgage Applications Steady Out Alongside Rates
Feb-11 12:50
MBA mortgage applications fell for a 3rd consecutive week (-0.3% W/W) to Feb 6, though the pullback since the multi-year high in apps in mid-January has slowed (prior two weeks saw drops of 8+%). Refi activity actually picked up slightly (+1.2% W/W) with purchases down for a 3rd week for the lowest since Jan 2.
- The stabilization comes alongside a steadying in mortgage rates, with 30Y conforming printing in the low 6.2s% for a 3rd week, albeit up from the to post-Sept 2024 low of 6.16% in mid-January.
- These moves underline the sensitivity of mortgage activity to rates, and we note a bit of a stalling out in the long-standing narrowing of mortgage spreads-to-swaps / Treasuries in the last couple of weeks.
- Overall, activity will remain subdued on a historical basis until such time rates pull back on a more consistent basis.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
FED: FHFA's Pulte Denies Involvement in Powell Subpoenas
Jan-12 12:42
FHFA's Bill Pulte currently live on BBG TV - he's an arch-critic of Fed's Powell and had been seen a key potential driver of the subpoena's for the Fed that arrived on Friday. He says:
- "The DoJ is outside of my purview, this is out of my purview, I don't know anything about it. I would refer you to the DoJ"
Separately, Hassett speaking on CNBC on the same issue:
- "WHITE HOUSE ECONOMIC ADVISER HASSETT: RESPECT INDEPENDENCE OF THE FED, FED BUILDING RENOVATION HAS DRAMATIC COST OVERRUNS, PLANS LOOK INCONSISTENT WITH TESTIMONY" - Reuters
MNI EXCLUSIVE: Interview with Former IMF Staffer on Fed
Jan-12 12:40
- MNI interviews former IMF deputy division chief on Fed policy outlook. - On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Monitoring Resistance In Bunds
Jan-12 12:31
- In the FI space, Bund futures are trading closer to their recent highs. The latest rally does undermine the bear theme and attention is on resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 128.29. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for a continuation higher, towards 128.75, the Dec 3 high. Key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 126.75, the Dec 22 low.
- Gilt futures traded sharply higher last week. The contract is through resistance at 91.93, the Nov 27 high. This strengthens a short-term bullish condition and paves the way for a climb towards 92.57 next, a 1.500 projection of the Dec 16 - 17 - 22 price swing. On the downside, initial support is seen at 91.84, the Jan 8 low. Support at the 20-day EMA lies at 91.40. A break of the average would signal a possible reversal.
