US DATA: Weekly ADP Tracking Continues Pace Seen In ‘January’ Print
Feb-10 15:37
- ADP employment increased an average 6.5k w/w in the four weeks to Jan 24.
- Revisions were extensive but not surprising after benchmarking in last week’s monthly report (see US DATA: ADP Employment Sees Modest Miss and Large Downard Revisions On QCEW - Feb 4).
- Today's revised data provided by ADP only goes back to early November when we can be fairly sure the actual revisions go back further – see charts.
- The 6.5k increase is equivalent to 26k over a month, implying a similar pace to the 22k reported in last week’s January update (with its reference period as usual being the week including the 12th day of the month).
- It follows 37k in December and 74k in November after the latter saw a huge revision from -29k on those QCEW-related benchmark revisions.
- Today’s ADP press release went into more detail on these revisions, found here.
- This estimate of private employment continues to sit softer than BLS private payrolls, which are expected at 70k in tomorrow's unusual Wednesday release for January after 37k in December.
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AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (H6) Recovery Mode
Jan-10 22:45
- RES 3: 97.796 - 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 12 - 15 price swing
- RES 2: 96.780 - High Jun 26 (cont)
- RES 1: 96.700 - High Sep 12
- PRICE: 95.890 @ 16:40 GMT Jan 9
- SUP 1: 95.740 - Low Dec 22
- SUP 2: 95.480 - Low 1st Nov ‘23
- SUP 3: 94.932 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
Prices bounced again Thursday, supported by strength in global bond markets and a smoother inflation picture at the December CPI print. As such, prices edged further away from recent lows. Nonetheless, slower pricing for additional RBA easing - and partial pricing for a return to rate hikes in 2026 - should keep the front-end of the curve under pressure. This keeps prices well below prior resistance at 96.615, the Sep 12 high, and refocuses attention on 95.480 as the next major support.
MNI: MNI TEST 02, Please Ignore
Jan-09 23:36
Test Test TEST
MNI: MNI Test, Please Ignore
Jan-09 23:30
Test, ignore
