US DATA: Weekly ADP Series Rolls Over
The first known-ahead-of-time release of the weekly ADP data was marred by data dissemination issues but ultimately suggested a return of private sector job losses in data up to Oct 25. On its own it points to renewed sizeable deterioration in net job creation after some stabilization in the monthly October report (with its reference week including the 12th of the month), although ADP warns that these data are preliminary and can be revised.
- In the second publication of weekly ADP data under the guise of its new NER Pulse, private employers on average cut 11,250 jobs on a week-on-week basis in the four weeks to Oct 25, i.e. worth about -45k on a monthly basis.
- ADP does however warn that “These numbers are preliminary and could change as new data is added”. Indeed, we can see there have been revisions this week from a chart image in today’s release but we aren’t able to confirm what they actually are.
- For now, it follows a 42k M/M increase in last week’s main monthly report for October, as usual built on a reference week that includes the 12th day of the month.
- As for how it compares with previous weeks, it follows the 14.25k to Oct 11 (~57k monthly basis) in the release from two weeks ago, a figure that looks broadly similar after today’s updated release but again, we can’t say for sure.
- Nevertheless, taking latest data at face value, it points to a return to negative jobs growth after the -29k reported in September and -3k in August monthly ADP releases.
- That weakness chimes more closely with last week’s Revelio Labs estimate of nonfarm payrolls growth of -9k even if its implied private sector figure was a little stronger at +13k.
- For future reference, rather than the Main Street Macro webpage suggested ahead of time, ADP first released the details here: https://www.adpresearch.com/the-ner-pulse/.
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US: Trump Oval Office Announcement Underway Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver an announcement in the White House Oval Office. LIVESTREAM The announcement is expected to relate to drug pricing and could follow a similar template to a recent pledge from Pfizer.
- The announcement will be Trump's first press remarks since a market-moving Truth Social statement earlier today in which Trump suggested calling off a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and raising tariffs on China in response to new export controls from Beijing on rare earths. See earlier bullets here and here.
RATINGS: Moody's Completes Periodic Review Of Belgium, No Rating Action
No ratings actions for Belgium from Moody's, which is quoted in a press release on Bloomberg: "Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Belgium and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 2 October 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), and recent developments. This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future."
- There had been some speculation there could be a ratings action - MNI wrote Thursday: "* Moody's on Belgium (Current rating Aa3, Outlook Negative): We expect Moody's to maintain their current stance in the absence of 2026 budget details."
MACRO ANALYSIS: US Macro Week Ahead: No CPI, But Plenty Of Pre-Blackout FedSpeak
Below is the week’s data schedule, with MNI’s annotation of whether or not data will be postponed.
- As we went to press, the Fed announced that next week's Industrial Production data will be postponed (was due to be published next Friday Oct 17) as the data “incorporate a range of data from other government agencies, the publication of which has been delayed as a result of the federal government shutdown.”
- We won’t be getting September CPI as scheduled on Oct 15, but at least the BLS announced it will publish the data on Oct 24.
- As such next week we’ll be looking at some under-covered data points, including the Redbook weekly and Chicago Fed’s CARTS retail sales data (in lieu of the Census Bureau retail sales report), with a little more focus than usual on regional Fed manufacturing indices (NY, Philadelphia).
- Once again, the dearth of tier-one data leaves Fed commentary in focus ahead of the pre-FOMC blackout period: highlights for us are Philadelphia Fed President Paulson making her first comments on monetary policy on Monday since being appointed in the summer, while as always Chair Powell bears watching on Tuesday (we also hear from Bowman, Waller, Collins, Miran, Schmid, and Musalem).
- Additionally we get the latest Beige Book which was already key given the FOMC was already increasingly focused on anecdotal information as it attempts to navigate murky economic waters.
