Gilts underperformed Bunds Wednesday amid speculation that continued Euro strength could tilt the ECB toward pursuing easier policy than it otherwise would have.
- The German curve bull steepened early following dovishly-perceived commentary from ECB’s Kocher and Villeroy. Kocher suggested to the FT that continued EUR appreciation could create “a certain necessity to react in terms of monetary policy” (though said the "modest" move so far doesn't necessitate a response). Villeroy similarly noted that the exchange rate was one factor guiding policy.
- Gilts failed to participate in EGB gains, mirroring a downside move in Treasuries, though would ultimately stabilize toward the cash close as equities and oil pulled back.
- In a limited data slate, Italy's business confidence index increased further in January for a fifth consecutive rise.
- The German curve closed bull steeper, with the UK's twist steepening. Periphery/semi-core EGB spreads closed a little wider.
- The Federal Reserve decision will dominate attention after the European cash close. While we get Eurozone confidence data Thursday, The data highlight of the week remains Eurozone inflation - Germany and Spain are scheduled to release data on Friday. MNI's preview is here.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 2.9bps at 2.1%, 5-Yr is down 2.7bps at 2.441%, 10-Yr is down 1.8bps at 2.857%, and 30-Yr is unchanged at 3.494%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 0.1bps at 3.742%, 5-Yr is up 0.2bps at 3.989%, 10-Yr is up 1.9bps at 4.544%, and 30-Yr is up 2.6bps at 5.296%.
- Italian BTP spread up 1.5bps at 60.9bps / French OAT up 0.3bps at 57bps