FOREX: Weaker USD Not Sustained, A$ Outperforms Post, AUD/JPY Eyes 101.00

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.8751 High Sep 25  
• PRICE: 0.8725 @ 06:44 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 0.8662/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

EURGBP is trading closer to its recent highs and a bullish theme remains intact. The latest recovery paves the way for an extension towards the bull trigger at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bull theme. Support to watch lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. A breach of this level would instead reinstate a recent bearish threat. First support is 0.8662, the 50-day EMA.

Market Summary: The Hang Seng is up +1.40%, the CSI 300 +0.47%, Shanghai up +0.13% and Shenzhen up +0.86 whilst the Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1089 Per USD; Estimate 7.1265.  Bonds are unchanged with the 10-Yr at 1.88%

• China is intensifying efforts to expand domestic demand, with service-related spending emerging as a key growth driver.  In response, regulators have rolled out consumer finance measures designed to support consumption upgrades and encourage household spending.  Earlier this year, the National Financial Regulatory Administration directed financial institutions to broaden their consumer finance offerings as part of a wider push to stimulate demand.  (source China Daily)
• Rebound in industrial profits signals stabilization of economy.  China's economy is showing signs of stabilizing amid robust policy measures and notable industrial recovery, analysts said on Sunday.  They expect the recovery momentum to extend into the fourth quarter, keeping the country on course to meet its annual growth target of around 5 percent, with authorities likely to ramp up fiscal and monetary measures to counter persistent headwinds of still-weak demand and external uncertainties.  Policy options on the table include issuing ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, faster issuance of local government special bonds, and potential monetary easing to lower financing costs and channel credit into technology and green sectors, they added.  (source China Daily)

France, Greece and the EU are due to sell bills this week. We expect issuance to be E11.6bln in first round operations, down from E21.6bln last week.

• This afternoon, France will look to issue up to E7.9bln of 14/15/27/49-week BTFs: E2.6-3.0bln of the new 14-week Jan 7, 2026 BTF, E0.1-0.5bln of the 15-week Jan 14, 2026 BTF, E1.6-2.0bln of the 27-week Apr 9, 2026 BTF and E2.0-2.4bln of the 49-week Sep 9, 2026 BTF.
• On Wednesday morning, Greece will look to come to the market with E500mln of the 13-week Jan 2, 2026 GTB.
• Finally on Wednesday, the EU will look to sell up to E1.0bln of the 3-month Jan 9, 2026 EU-bill, up to E1.0bln of the 6-month Apr 10, 2025 EU-bill and up to E1.5bln of the new 12-month Oct 10, 2026 EU-bill.