EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C 4 August

Germany, the Netherlands, France, Spain, Belgium and Italy are due to sell bills this week. We expect issuance to be E27.6bln in first round operations, up from E20.6bln last week.

• This morning, Germany will look to sell E3bln of the 6-month Jan 14, 2026 Bubill and E1bln of the 11-month Jun 17, 2026 Bubill. This will be the first auction of the 11-month bubill since its re-introduction was announced in DFA's Q3 issuance plan.
• Also this morning, the Netherlands will look to issue E1.0-2.0bln of the 3-month Sep 29, 2025 DTC and E0.5-1.5bln of the 4-month Oct 30, 2025 DTC.
• This afternoon, France will look to come to the market with up to E7.5bln of 14/15/27/49-week BTFs: E2.7-3.1bln of the new 14-week Oct 15, 2025 BTF, E0.0-0.4bln of the 15-week Oct 22, 2025 BTF, E1.8-2.2bln of the 27-week Jan 14, 2026 BTF and E1.4-1.8bln of the 49-week Jun 17, 2026 BTF.
• Tomorrow morning, Spain will look to sell the 3-month Oct 10, 2025 letras and the 9-month Apr 10, 2026 letras, with size details to be announced today.
• Also tomorrow, Belgium will look to issue E2.6-3.0bln of TCs: An indicative E1.0bln of the 3-month Oct 16, 2025 TC and an indicative E1.8bln of the new 12-month Jul 9, 2026 TC.
• Finally on Thursday, Italy will look to hold a BOT auction. A new 12-month BOT will be on offer, potentially alongside another BOT. Details will be announced today.

• RES 4: 1.3852 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 1.3835 High Oct 20 2021
• RES 2: 1.3800 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 1.3789 High Jul 01
• PRICE: 1.3616 @ 06:37 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 1.3602/63 20-day EMA / Low Jul 02
• SUP 2: 1.3462 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3369 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low 
• SUP 4: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support

A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Support to watch is1.3602, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper correction towards the 50-day EMA at 1.3462. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 1.3789, the Jul 1 high. A break of it would resume the uptrend. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position - this suggests the M/T uptrend remains intact.

• China will replicate 77 pilot measures from the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone (FTZ) in other FTZs and across the country, among efforts to align with high-standard international economic and trade rules and advance high-level institutional opening-up, according to a State Council circular released on Thursday.  The measures span seven key areas: services trade, goods trade, digital trade, intellectual property protection, government procurement reform, behind-the-border management systems reform, and risk prevention and control.  (source China Daily)
• Chinese Premier Li Qiang said Sunday that BRICS countries should strive to become the vanguard in advancing the reform of global governance. Li made the remarks when addressing the plenary session of "Peace and Security and Reform of Global Governance" of the 17th BRICS Summit, calling on the bloc to safeguard world peace and tranquility, and promote the peaceful settlement of disputes.  (source Global Times)
• Applications for initial public offerings (IPOs) in Hong Kong had surged to around 200 so far in 2025 as investors are bullish about the Hong Kong bourse in the second half of this year, Paul Chan, financial secretary of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government, wrote on his blog on Sunday.  Companies from the Middle East and Southeast Asia were among the applicants for IPOs, said Chan.  A total of 42 IPOs in the first six months raised over 107 billion Hong Kong dollars (13.63 billion U.S. dollars), landing Hong Kong the top spot in the world in terms of IPO proceeds.  (source XINHUA)
• China's major bourses are all down today in a weak start to the week. The Hang Seng is down -0.45%, the CSI 300 down -0.59%, Shanghai Comp down -0.20% and the Shenzhen Comp down -0.15%.
• Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1506 Per USD; Estimate 7.1656
• The CBG 10yr is unchanged at 1.64% today