STIR: Still Eyeing September And December Cuts

• RES 4: 1.4016 High May 12 / 13  
• RES 3: 1.3920 High May 21  
• RES 2: 1.3862 High May 29 
• RES 1: 1.3836 23.6% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg   
• PRICE: 1.3817 @ 20:02 BST Jul 30
• SUP 1: 1.3688/3557 20-day EMA / Low Jul 03
• SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024

A short-term correction in USDCAD remains in play. Note that price has traded through the 50-day EMA at 1.3730 and this has been followed by a break of resistance at 1.3798, the Jun 23 high. Clearance of 1.3798 represents an important short-term bullish development, signalling scope for a stronger recovery. Sights are on 1.3836 a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, 1.3540, the Jun 16 low, marks key support.  

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• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing  
• RES 1: 0.6538/6625 High Jul 29 / 24 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6432 @ 20:01 BST Jul 30
• SUP 1: 0.6430 Low Jul 30
• SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg  
• SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16

AUDUSD has this week traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This undermines a recent bullish theme and signals the likely start of a corrective cycle. The next support was cleared Wednesday at 0.6455 the Jul 17 low. The clear break of this level strengthens a bearish threat and signals scope for an extension towards 0.6373, the Jun 23 low. Key resistance has been defined at 0.6625 the Jul 24 high. It also represents the bull trigger.