HUNGARY: Virag-Inspired HUF Sell-Off Fails to Hold Momentum Amid Lack of Details
- Barnabas Virag had already been moved aside from a more prominent position as deputy governor in charge of monetary policy in April, but his early resignation (his term was due to expire in July 2026) could point to discontent within NBH ranks. However, no reason has been provided for his resignation and the central bank states that Virag will in the future "assist the work of the Magyar Nemzeti Bank as an advisor to the President,” suggesting a somewhat amicable departure.
- Given Virag will remain in an indirect, operational role - rather than leaving altogether - the initial rally in EURHUF has struggled to gain traction and spot failed to make a convincing break initial resistance at the 20-day EMA. Indeed, the move higher has been mostly reversed already – spot stands just ~0.4% in the green at typing and still lower on the week overall.
- Peter Beno Banai, Virag’s replacement, previously held positions in the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of National Economy. He has been the Chief Advisor to the President of the NBH since May 2025.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EQUITIES: FTSE-100 Stands Out in Soft Europe Trade
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract is trading above support at the 50-day EMA. The average, currently at 6627.92, has been pierced but remains intact - for now. Note that the Oct 10 low of 6540.25 marks the key short-term support. The trend direction in Eurostoxx 50 futures is up and This week’s gains reinforce this theme. The breach of 5689.00, the Oct 2 high and bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 8.27 pts or -0.02% at 49307.79 and the TOPIX ended 16.93 pts higher or +0.52% at 3266.43.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 2.574 pts or -0.07% at 3913.758 and the HANG SENG ended 245.78 pts lower or -0.94% at 25781.77.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 64.63 pts or -0.27% at 24263.12, FTSE 100 higher by 60.69 pts or +0.64% at 9487.18, CAC 40 down 43.81 pts or -0.53% at 8214.14 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 22.8 pts or -0.4% at 5663.71.
- Dow Jones mini down 22 pts or -0.05% at 47120, S&P 500 mini up 0.5 pts or +0.01% at 6774.25, NASDAQ mini down 31.5 pts or -0.12% at 25265.75.
COMMODITIES: Gold Pullback Deemed Corrective
A sharp pullback in Gold yesterday appears corrective - for now. Note that the trend is overbought and a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind. Support at the 20-day EMA, at $4031.4, has been pierced. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the move down last week reinforces current conditions. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend.
- WTI Crude up $0.97 or +1.69% at $58.21
- Natural Gas down $0.03 or -0.72% at $3.453
- Gold spot down $17.97 or -0.44% at $4106.71
- Copper up $0.7 or +0.14% at $497.15
- Silver down $0.03 or -0.07% at $48.6885
- Platinum down $16.74 or -1.08% at $1530.79
NOK: Benefitting From Crude Rally; Support In EURNOK Intact
NOK is off the session’s strongest levels alongside oil, but continues to outperform the G10 basket. Expect global developments to continue dictating NOK price action in the near-term, with little in the way of market moving domestic data due ahead of Norges Bank’s November decision (which in any case is not expected to bring any surprises).
- EURNOK is down 0.22% at 11.6442 at typing, up from a 11.6207 session low. Initial support is the October 8 low at 11.5896, which shields stronger support at 11.5387 (Sep 15 low).
- NOKSEK is up 0.4% today at 0.9402, but continues to consolidate below the key 0.9500 pivot level. Trendline support drawn from the March 2022 high is also still intact.
- Crude markets have rallied today amid reports that the US and India are close to a deal to lower US tariffs that could see India gradually reduce Russian oil imports (and therefore channel oil demand towards other producers).
- Norwegian September LFS unemployment data is due tomorrow morning. While important to monitor, the release can exhibit significant volatility month-to-month and in any case is not Norges Bank’s preferred unemployment metric.
