NORGES BANK: VIEW: Nordea Now See Norges Bank On Hold This Month, Cuts In Rate Path Come Q424
Nordea believe that "Norges Bank has a tough choice in December with most factors pointing to an unchanged interest rate. The weaker NOK is the only factor that could result in a rate hike. We expect no hike in December and see the new rate path showing a cut in Q424.”
- In terms of details they flag the following factors as reasons to hold:
- Rates abroad have fallen massively since September, with notable rate cut cycles being priced in for both the Fed and ECB next year.
- The domestic economy has been a bit softer than expected,. Data “indicates that the inflection point for the Norwegian economy could come sooner than Norges Bank assumed in September. However, November unemployment remained lower than expected.”
- Oil prices are lower.
- They see inflation figures lower vs. Norges Bank September assumptions.
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SPAIN T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 6/12-month letras
| Type | 6-month letras | 12-month letras |
| Maturity | May 10, 2024 | Nov 8, 2024 |
| Amount | E1.003bln | E3.27bln |
| Target | E4.0bln-5.0bln | Shared |
| Previous | E1.038bln | E3.535bln |
| Avg yield | 3.709% | 3.606% |
| Previous | 3.823% | 3.862% |
| Bid-to-cover | 2.73x | 1.99x |
| Previous | 2.72x | 1.79x |
| Previous date | Oct 03, 2023 | Oct 03, 2023 |
US TSY FUTURES: UXY Blocked
Latest block trade lodged at 09:09:34 London/04:09:34 NY:
- UXYZ3 1,750 lots blocked at 111-05, looks like a buyer.
- DV01 ~$154K.
UK: King's Speech @ ~1125GMT To Set Out Gov'ts Legislative Agenda
King Charles III is expected to deliver the first King's speech in over 70 years at around 1125GMT (0625ET, 1225CET), setting out the gov'ts legislative agenda for the coming 12-18 months. While a significant political event, the speech is likely to be light on developments that could affect financial markets. The most notable interest will be in the energy space, with oil and gas production licenses to be awarded on an annual basis. This is not likely to impact household bills, but the gov't argues it will boost the UK's energy security.
- The other main areas of the speech are set to focus on law and order issues regarding tougher sentencing, as well as alterations to the UK's leasehold system.
- The speech is seen as one of three prongs in a strategy by the gov't to attempt to revive its flagging polling numbers (in the first week of November the main opposition Labour party led PM Rishi Sunak's Conservatives by an average of 18.8%). The second is a potential Cabinet reshuffle. The third is the upcoming Autumn Statement, to be delivered by Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt on 22 Nov.
- Given that the next election must take place by Jan 2025, there remains speculation as to whether voter-friendly measures such as tax cuts could come in the AS. A restrained AS could be a signal that a spring general election is unlikely, with the so-called 'rabbit out of the hat' measures saved until the Budget ahead of an autumn election.
