OIL: Venezuela’s Policy Change Due to Maduro’s Waning Support: Reuters

Venezuela’s reversal in its rapprochement with the US – which had brought sanctions relief on the oil industry– is driven by faltering domestic support for Maduro, Reuters said.

• The Barbados agreement gave temporary sanction easing until April 18 in exchange for Venezuela taking steps to implement democratic elections this year.
• However, Contrary measures such as upholding a ban on the lead opposition candidate mean prospects for any deal renewal are vanishing.
• The change is likely driven by falling support for Maduro’s government, Reuters said.
• "If there are elections, he'll lose," a source close to the ruling party told Reuters referring to a free and fair vote.
• Although some in Maduro’s party prefer a more pragmatic relationship with the US, should he prioritise securing his own position by scuppering transparent elections, re-implementing sanctions would be inevitable.
• Rapidan energy estimate around a 30% drop in oil output under sanctions, while international companies like Repsol will lose-out on recent investments.