SGD: USD/SGD - Regains Momentum, Looks To Test 1.3100 Again
The overnight range was 1.3021 - 1.3075, Asia is currently trading around 1.3065. USD/SGD broke through the 1.3040-50 area overnight and accelerated higher dragged up by the move in USD/JPY. The move looks technically constructive and is attempting to build a base from which to move higher. In the Asian session look for dips back toward 1.3040-1.3050 to find support initially, where I would be skewed long for another test of the 1.3100 area. A sustained move back above 1.3100 in USD/SGD could potentially confirm a medium-term base is in and the potential start of a new leg higher.
- The USD/SGD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 48 Points
Fig 1 : USD/SGD Spot Weekly Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
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AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (Z5) Strong Weekly Close
- RES 3: 97.796 - 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 12 - 15 price swing
- RES 2: 96.780 - High Jun 26 (cont)
- RES 1: 96.700 - High Sep 12
- PRICE: 96.630 @ 16:48 BST Oct 20
- SUP 1: 96.280 - Low May 15 (cont.)
- SUP 2: 95.900 - Low Jan 14 (cont.)
- SUP 3: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
Aussie 3-yr futures surged on the resumption of trade after the weekend, returning focus higher despite the break of support last week. Short-term resistance at 96.615, the Sep 12 high, has been broken, with 96.780 is the next upside target. Clearance of this level puts markets at fresh multi-month highs. 96.280 marks next major support - but markets are some way off this mark now.
NZD: Outperforms But Watching 0.5755/60 Resistance, Still Sub All Key EMAs
NZD/USD tracks near 0.5740/45 in early Tuesday dealings, just off Monday highs (0.5753). The Kiwi was an outperformer in Monday's session, with the Q3 CPI release likely ruling out more aggressive RBNZ action at the Nov meeting (RBNZ pricing was little changed yesterday), while the global equity rally provided another positive impetus. Still, we remain eyeing a test above the 0.5755/0.5760 region, which has marked recent highs. We are also sub all key EMAs, the 20-day is at 0.5775. Dips back to 0.5700 remain supported for now.
- NZ-US 2yr swap rate differentials remained wedged close to recent lows, last around -89bps. As the chart below highlights this is not providing fresh upside impetus for NZD.
- The better global equity rally helped, as sentiment continued to recover from the recent credit induced wobbles in the US (the S&P 500 has had its best 2 day run since June), although NZD/JPY couldn't sustain above the 20-day EMA (86.74), we were last 86.55.
- The local data calendar has Sep trade figures coming up shortly. We have seen deteriorating trade balances in recent months (last just over -NZ$1.1bn), although from a seasonality standpoint we tend to improve as we approach year end.
Fig 1: NZD/USD & NZ-US 2yr Swap Rate Differential
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
ASIA: Government Bond Issuance Today
- Hong Kong to Sell HK$12 Bn 182-Day Bills
- Hong Kong to Sell HK$5 Bn 364-Day Bills
- Hong Kong to Sell HK$64.283 Bn 91-Day Bills
- Bank of Thailand to Sell THB65 Bn of 90-Days Bills
- Bank of Thailand to Sell THB55 Bn of 363-Days Bills
- Thailand to Sell THB10 Bn of 2050 Bonds
- Thailand to Sell THB25 Bn of 2030 Bonds
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 92D SVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 365D SVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 32D SVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 182D SVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 273D SVBI Bills
- Malaysia to Sell MYR2.5 Bn 2044 Bonds
- Philippines To Sell PHP 20.0Bln 2032 Bonds (PIBD1032I695*)
- Philippines To Sell PHP 15.0Bln 2050 Bonds (PH0000059891**)
- Indonesia To Sell 30D Bills (SPN01251122)
- Indonesia To Sell 90D Bills (SPN03260121)
