MEXICO: USDMXN Continues To Hug Recent Lows

Mar-02 12:41
  • The Mexican peso continues to trade resiliently as USDMXN extended to fresh 5-year lows on Wednesday, slowly narrowing the gap with the 18.00 mark and the 2018 lows at 17.94.
  • As well as the hawkish central bank, the latest developments regarding Tesla’s investment in the nation are acting as firm tailwinds for the Peso.
  • Deputy Foreign Minister Martha Delgado announced yesterday that Tesla are to invest around $5 billion in the project, and 6,000 jobs are expected to be created as a result.
  • Additionally, President AMLO said Tesla is looking at further investments in the country, including a battery plant in the state of Hidalgo near a new airport, a key infrastructure project for his administration.

Historical bullets

US TSYS: Early SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup

Jan-31 12:40

Mixed flow on modest overnight volumes ahead Wed's FOMC annc:

  • SOFR Options:
    • 2,000 OQM3 96.06/96.56 3x2 put spds ref 96.48
    • Block, 3,500 SFRG3 95.06/95.12 put spds, 1.25 vs. 95.145/0.12%
    • over 8,000 SFRG3 95.12/95.18 strangles ref 95.16
    • 3,500 SFRZ3 94.50 puts, 4.5 ref 95.545
  • Treasury Options:
    • 2,000 TYH3 118 calls, 4 ref 114-12.5
    • over 18,000 TYH3 115.5 calls, 25-27 ref 114-15 to -17.5

AUSTRALIA: Labor On Course To Win NSW Election Dealing Further Blow To Coalition

Jan-31 12:33

The incumbent centre-right Liberal/National Coalition gov't of Premier Dominic Perrottet is on course to lose its majority in Australia's most populous state New South Wales according to opinion polling. The election, taking place on 25 March, looks set to deliver a majority for the centre-left Labor Party in what would be a notable political development in a state that has been run by the Coalition since 2011.

  • Polling in January shows Labor ahead of the Coalition on a primary vote basis by 3-6%, but on the two-party preferred vote Labor leads by 12% according to polling by YouGov.
  • Labor continues to benefit from the broad popularity of the gov't of PM Anthony Albanese at the federal level. A win for Labour in NSW would see the party control the gov'ts of all Australian states and internal territories, apart from Liberal-controlled Tasmania.
  • The 29% primary vote support recorded by the Coalition in a January 2023 Resolve Strategic federal-level opinion poll was the lowest for the parties since March 2008, which came in the wake of Labor PM Kevin Rudd's landslide win in the Nov 2007 election.
  • While the next federal election is not due until 2025 at the latest without a notable turnaround for Peter Dutton's Coalition, a sustained period of ALP governance looks increasingly likely.
Chart 1. NSW Election Primary Vote Opinion Polling, %

Source: Resolve Strategic, Essential, Roy Morgan, YouGov, Newspoll, Freshwater Strategy, MNI

PIPELINE: $1.25B CABEI 3Y SOFR Launched

Jan-31 12:26
  • Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
  • 01/31 $1.25B #CABEI 3Y SOFR+120
  • $10.45B Priced Monday
  • 01/30 $3.25B *IBM $850M 3Y +60, $1B 5Y +85, $750M 10Y +120, $650M 30Y +145
  • 01/30 $2.6B *Elevance Health $500M 3NC1 +97, $1B 10Y +122, $1.1B 30Y +147
  • 01/30 $1.1B *Charter Comm's 8NC3 7.375%
  • 01/30 $900M *Codelco 10Y +158
  • 01/30 $850M *Bank of New Zealand 5Y +118
  • 01/30 $750M *Synchrony Financial 10Y +375
  • 01/30 $500M *Constellation Brands 3NC1 +110
  • 01/30 $500M *Tyco Electronics 3Y +60
  • 01/30 $Benchmark Pemex investor calls